Market Overview for Liquity/Tether (LQTYUSDT) - 2025-11-08

Summary
• Price declined from a high of 0.568 to 0.535, closing at 0.537.
• 24-hour volume surged to ~1.48M units, but turnover declined with weak buying interest.
• Key support at 0.525 tested twice; overbought conditions cleared in early session.

Liquity/Tether (LQTYUSDT) opened at 0.534 on 2025-11-07 at 12:00 ET and closed at 0.537 on 2025-11-08 at 12:00 ET. The 24-hour high reached 0.568 while the low dropped to 0.514. Total trading volume for the period was 1,483,614.0 units, with notional turnover amounting to ~$778,138. Price action revealed a bearish momentum after an early morning breakout attempt failed near 0.566.

Structure & Formations

The 15-minute chart displayed a bearish engulfing pattern around 0.566 as price failed to maintain above 0.562. A key support level emerged near 0.535, which held twice after minor rejections. A potential bullish hammer is forming as the last candle closed near 0.537 after trading down to 0.535. Resistance levels appear consolidated at 0.545–0.550, with a prior rejection at 0.552.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period SMA crossed below the 50-period SMA, forming a death cross. On the daily chart, the 50-period SMA continues to outpace the 200-period SMA, suggesting a moderate bullish bias over the longer term, but short-term momentum favors bearish continuation.

MACD & RSI

The MACD histogram has been bearish since 0.560, with negative divergence between price and momentum. RSI dropped from 70 to 45 after a failed breakout, indicating bearish exhaustion. A potential reversal may occur if RSI rises back above 50 and MACD turns positive.

Bollinger Bands

Price has been trading within the lower band of the Bollinger Band for most of the session, indicating low volatility and bearish pressure. A break above the upper band (~0.565) could signal a short-term bullish reversal, but this remains unlikely without a strong volume rally.

Volume & Turnover

Trading volume surged at the 0.520–0.525 range as price hit a key support level, confirming bearish exhaustion. Notional turnover declined sharply during the 0.540–0.545 range, suggesting limited conviction in the short-term bounce. A divergence between volume and price could hint at a potential reversal, but confirmation is pending.

Fibonacci Retracements

The 61.8% Fibonacci level (~0.542) was rejected twice, with a bearish breakdown confirming a potential continuation of the downtrend. The 38.2% level (~0.555) is acting as a minor resistance ahead of the 0.562 key swing high.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the bearish momentum and low volatility observed, a backtesting strategy focused on RSI-based signals could align with the current market behavior. A possible backtest would involve entering short positions when RSI crosses above 70 (a bearish divergence indicator in this context), with exits at RSI < 50 or after a fixed time horizon. This approach would align with the recent overbought-to-oversold shift and could test the sustainability of the bearish bias.