Market Overview for Linea/Turkish Lira (LINEATRY) – October 13, 2025

• LINEATRY surged from 0.7736 to 0.8221 before retracting to 0.8097, forming a bearish divergence with volume.
• RSI and MACD signaled overbought conditions by 19:30 ET, preceding a 2.5% pullback.
• Volatility expanded after 18:00 ET, with Bollinger Bands widening and price bouncing off key resistance at 0.82.
• Key support identified at 0.7967 and 0.7829, with a 61.8% Fib retracement aligning near 0.8043.
• A bearish reversal pattern (Dark Cloud Cover) formed near 0.8171, raising short-term exit signals.

LINEATRY opened at 0.7736 on October 12 at 12:00 ET and reached a high of 0.8221 before closing at 0.8097 at 12:00 ET the next day. The total volume across the 24-hour window was 135,802,484.0, with notional turnover of approximately 106,133,617.0 TRL. The price action showed a sharp rally followed by a broad consolidation phase.

Structure & Formations

The 24-hour price action of LINEATRY was marked by an aggressive rally from 0.7736 to 0.8221, driven by strong volume surges in the 17:00–19:30 ET window. The price then entered a period of consolidation, forming a key bearish candlestick pattern—Dark Cloud Cover—around 0.8171. This pattern, along with a bearish divergence between volume and price, suggests a potential reversal in momentum. Key support levels identified include 0.7967 (a recent pivot low) and 0.7829, while resistance holds at 0.81–0.82.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period SMA crossed above the 50-period SMA in the morning session, confirming an initial uptrend. However, the 50-period SMA began to turn downward after 19:30 ET, reflecting weakening momentum. On a daily timeframe, the 50-period SMA sits below the 200-period SMA, indicating an overall bearish bias, with the price currently hovering near the 50-period level. This suggests a potential pivot point for near-term direction.

MACD & RSI

The MACD crossed into positive territory mid-day and peaked by 19:30 ET before diverging downward, coinciding with a pullback to 0.8097. The RSI reached overbought levels near 70 at the peak, reinforcing the likelihood of a short-term correction. The RSI has since retracted to neutral territory, but remains above 50, suggesting lingering bullish momentum in the short term. A further retest of the 0.7967 support level could trigger another RSI dip into oversold territory.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded significantly after 18:00 ET, with Bollinger Bands widening to reflect the increased price range. LINEATRY spent much of the consolidation phase near the lower band at 0.7967–0.7941, suggesting a potential bounce in the near term. The upper band remained anchored at 0.8221–0.8245, with the price failing to close above it, indicating strong resistance. A break below the 0.7967 level could trigger a test of the 0.7829 support and a potential extension to 0.7692.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked in the 17:00–19:30 ET window, coinciding with the rally to 0.8221. However, volume began to contract during the pullback, forming a bearish divergence that may signal weakening demand. Notional turnover reached a peak of 206,968.0 at 17:00 ET but declined through the evening and overnight sessions. This volume pattern supports a potential reversal and suggests that traders may be reducing exposure ahead of a potential break lower.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci levels to the key 0.7736–0.8221 rally, the 61.8% retracement sits at 0.7963, which aligns with recent price action at 0.7967. A retest of this level could determine whether the correction continues or reverses. On a longer timeframe, the 0.7829 level corresponds to a 78.6% retracement of the prior move, offering a potential floor for a deeper correction.

Backtest Hypothesis

The observed Dark Cloud Cover pattern, coupled with a bearish divergence in volume and RSI, supports a short-term exit hypothesis. A potential backtest strategy could involve a long entry on a close above the 20-period SMA and a short exit on a confirmed bearish reversal (e.g., Dark Cloud Cover or Bearish Engulfing) with a stop loss just above the prior swing high. The use of Fibonacci levels and Bollinger Band breakouts could further refine entry and exit timing. Given LINEATRY’s high volatility and volume sensitivity, incorporating a 50-period SMA crossover as an additional filter may enhance strategy robustness.