Market Overview: Linea/Turkish Lira (LINEATRY) 24-Hour Technical Update

• Price declined from 0.79 to 0.7347 amid high volatility.
• Volume surged during the sharp drop in the early session.
• RSI suggests oversold conditions, hinting at a potential rebound.
• Bollinger Bands show a recent contraction ahead of a breakout.
• No clear bullish reversal pattern formed despite lower prices.

Linea/Turkish Lira (LINEATRY) opened at 0.7832 on 2025-10-11 at 12:00 ET, reached a high of 0.7928, and hit a low of 0.7185 before closing at 0.7347 on 2025-10-12 at 12:00 ET. Total trading volume stood at 34,210,201.0 and notional turnover was 24,483,408.30 TRY.

Structure & Formations

The price formed a bearish trend channel early in the session, with a sharp decline from 0.79 to 0.7347. Key support levels emerged at 0.735 and 0.72, with 0.735 acting as a short-term floor. A notable bearish engulfing pattern formed at the peak near 0.7928, while the price tested a bullish doji near 0.7347 at the close, hinting at indecision. No strong reversal patterns emerged, but the price may attempt to test support at 0.735 in the near term.

Moving Averages and MACD/RSI

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-EMA and 50-EMA have been diverging lower, with the price under both, suggesting bearish momentum. The 50-period EMA on the daily chart is also below the 200-period SMA, indicating a bearish bias in the medium-term. The MACD crossed into negative territory mid-session, and the histogram remains bearish. RSI reached an oversold level near 28 at the close, suggesting a potential short-term rebound may be in the cards.

Volatility and Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands showed a narrowing contraction between 0.735 and 0.740 late in the session, signaling a potential breakout or breakdown. Price has remained below the lower band for the majority of the session, indicating bearish pressure. The 15-minute chart shows increasing volatility in the latter part of the session, with volume surging as the price approached key support levels. This suggests heightened attention to levels near 0.735.

Fibonacci Retracements

On the 15-minute chart, the price has tested the 61.8% retracement level of the recent bearish swing from 0.79 to 0.7347 at 0.735. This level has held as support, and a move above 0.740 could trigger a test of the 38.2% retracement at 0.745. If the price breaks below 0.735, the next Fibonacci level at 0.725 could be a key target for further downside.

Volume and Turnover

Volume spiked during the sharp drop from 0.79 to 0.7347, with a 15-minute candle at 2025-1011 19:15 recording a volume of 515,396 and a closing price of 0.767. This suggests strong bearish participation during the selloff. Turnover followed a similar pattern, with the heaviest notional turnover observed during the early part of the session. A divergence between price and volume is visible near the 0.735 support, suggesting a possible consolidation or reversal.

Backtest Hypothesis

The described backtesting strategy focuses on entering trades on confirmed breakouts of key Fibonacci levels combined with MACD divergence. A long entry would be triggered if the price breaks above 0.740 with bullish MACD, while a short trade would be initiated on a breakdown below 0.735 with bearish MACD. Given the current market structure and the proximity of key retracement levels, this strategy could be applied with a stop-loss placed just below 0.735 for longs or above 0.740 for shorts. The recent RSI oversold reading at 28 also adds to the potential validity of a short-term bounce scenario.