Market Overview: Linea/Turkish Lira (LINEATRY) - 2025-10-11

• LINEATRY opened at 0.9886 and fell to 0.9603, closing at 0.7791 with a bearish 24-hour trend.
• Volatility spiked during the midday sell-off, with a 25% drop in 3.5 hours.
• RSI entered oversold territory below 30 during the crash but showed no immediate bounce.
• Volume surged during the sell-off, confirming bearish momentum, but faded during the recovery.
• Fibonacci retracement levels suggest potential near-term support at 0.740 and 0.710.

Price Action and Structure

Linea/Turkish Lira (LINEATRY) opened at 0.9886 on 2025-10-10 at 16:00 ET and closed at 0.7791 on 2025-10-11 at 12:00 ET, with a high of 0.9958 and a low of 0.20. The pair posted a significant bearish trend, particularly from the midday collapse on 2025-10-10 to the early morning of 2025-10-11. During this period, the price dropped 25% in under 3.5 hours, forming a large bearish engulfing pattern from 16:00 to 21:30 ET. Key support levels emerged near 0.750, 0.730, and 0.710, with the latter showing initial rejection.

Moving Averages and Momentum

The 20-period and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart were significantly above the current price, highlighting the bearish deviation. The daily chart showed the 50/100/200-day moving averages trending lower, supporting a longer-term bearish bias. The MACD line turned negative during the midday sell-off, with a bearish crossover below the signal line, confirming the downward momentum. RSI dipped below 30 into oversold territory during the crash but failed to trigger a sustained rebound, suggesting weak buying pressure at lower levels.

Volatility and Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded dramatically during the midday sell-off, with price breaking below the lower Bollinger Band for an extended period. This signaled high uncertainty and aggressive selling. Price later tested the lower Bollinger Band again in the early morning, indicating continued bearish pressure. The contraction of the bands following the sell-off suggests potential for renewed volatility if the price breaks either boundary.

Volume and Turnover

Total volume over 24 hours amounted to 137,845,300.0, while notional turnover reached 99,945,737.5 TRL (Turkish Lira). The sell-off from 21:30 to 00:00 ET saw the highest volume spike, with over 35 million in turnover during the 3.5-hour window. This confirmed the bearish move. However, as the price bounced back toward 0.770, volume declined, suggesting weakening conviction. Price and turnover diverged slightly, with the volume failing to support the 0.760–0.770 level, indicating the recovery lacked strong buying interest.

Fibonacci Retracements

The most significant Fibonacci retracement levels from the high of 0.9958 to the low of 0.20 occurred at 0.740 (61.8%) and 0.710 (78.6%). Price tested both levels, with the 0.710 level showing initial resistance during the early morning recovery. A break below 0.710 could target the next retracement at 0.680. On the 15-minute chart, minor retracements from the 0.960–0.770 range also suggested potential support at 0.760 and 0.755.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtesting strategy could involve entering long positions on LINEATRY when RSI rebounds above 30 and the price breaks above the 20-period moving average on the 15-minute chart, with a stop-loss placed below a recent swing low. Short positions could be triggered when RSI exceeds 70 and price breaks below the 50-period moving average, with a stop above the recent swing high. This setup leverages both trend and momentum signals to capture short-term directional moves in a volatile market, consistent with the behavior observed during the midday sell-off and early morning bounce.