Market Overview for Linea/Turkish Lira (LINEATRY) on 2025-09-25

• LINEATRY experienced a bearish reversal from 1.2504 to 1.0674, with strong selling pressure in the 12–16 ET window.
• Volume surged in the 0000–0400 ET window, indicating heightened liquidity and possible order-block development.
• RSI and MACD signaled oversold conditions and weakening momentum, pointing to possible short-term stabilization.
• Bollinger Bands widened significantly, reflecting high volatility and uncertain trend direction.
• Fibonacci levels suggest 1.08–1.10 as near-term support, with 1.15–1.18 as key resistance ahead.

Overview and 24-Hour Price Action

Linea/Turkish Lira (LINEATRY) opened at 1.2471 on 2025-09-24 at 12:00 ET and fell sharply to close at 1.0674 by 12:00 ET on 2025-09-25. The pair reached a high of 1.2504 and a low of 1.0459 during the 24-hour period. Total volume amounted to 135,730,631.0, while turnover was approximately 66,284,128.5 TRL. The aggressive breakdown and extended volatility signal a high-risk environment with mixed short-term signals.

Structure & Formations

LINEATRY displayed a clear bearish structure, with multiple engulfing patterns and key breakdown levels forming below 1.2226. A doji formed at 1.1651 early in the session, indicating indecision before the sharp decline. The price then broke below the 1.1800 psychological level, confirming a structural bearish shift. Critical support levels appear at 1.1050 and 1.0750, with the 1.0519 level being tested in the final hours.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period moving average was below the 50-period line, both trending downward and confirming bearish momentum. The daily 50, 100, and 200-period averages remain unconfirmed in the given data, but the intraday bearish bias suggests the daily MA crossover may remain negative. A crossover to the positive side would require a strong rally above 1.1500.

MACD & RSI

The 15-minute MACD showed a bearish crossover with the signal line, with negative divergence suggesting continued bearish bias. RSI fell into oversold territory below 30 during the late hours of the session, potentially hinting at short-term stabilization. However, RSI failing to rebound above 40 suggests that any rally may be weak and short-lived. A sustained move above 50 could signal a bear trap, but further confirmation is needed.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands expanded significantly during the 12–16 ET window, reflecting heightened volatility as LINEATRY broke below key support levels. The price closed near the lower band, indicating oversold conditions and possible near-term bounce. However, the widening bands suggest uncertainty and a lack of defined trend, with no clear directional bias emerging in the final hours.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked sharply in the early morning hours (0000–0400 ET), with total turnover rising by over 30% compared to the afternoon. This surge suggests increased participation and potential accumulation by large players. Price and volume were aligned in the early morning, but the afternoon saw divergence, with declining price despite moderate turnover. This divergence indicates a weakening trend and potential reversal in the near term.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci levels to the recent 1.2504–1.0459 swing, key retracement levels lie at 1.1396 (38.2%), 1.1154 (50%), and 1.0912 (61.8%). LINEATRY is currently near the 61.8% retracement level at 1.0912, which may act as a near-term support. A breakdown below this level could push the pair toward 1.0578 and 1.0459, the 78.6% and 100% levels, respectively.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtest strategy described involves using Fibonacci retracements in conjunction with RSI and MACD signals to identify potential reversal or continuation setups. On LINEATRY, the 61.8% level at 1.0912 aligns with the RSI entering oversold territory and a bearish MACD. A test of this level with a RSI rebound above 40 and MACD divergence could signal a short-term reversal. If the price breaks below 1.0912 with increasing volume, it may validate the bearish continuation, suggesting a target at 1.0578–1.0459.