Market Overview for Linea/Turkish Lira (LINEATRY): 2025-09-17

• Price for LINEATRY surged from 1.0416 to 1.0655, then declined back to 1.023 by 12:00 ET.
• Key resistance held at 1.0600-1.0655, with support forming near 1.0200.
• Momentum shifted mid-day with RSI showing overbought and oversold extremes.
• High volatility observed between 16:00–23:30 ET, followed by consolidation overnight.
• Volume spiked sharply during the 19:00–21:30 ET rally before easing in the last 6 hours.

The Linea/Turkish Lira (LINEATRY) pair opened at 1.0416 on 2025-09-16 at 12:00 ET and reached a high of 1.0655 before closing at 1.023 on 2025-09-17 at 12:00 ET. Total volume traded in the 24-hour period was 43.2 million units, with notional turnover reaching ~67 million TRY. The pair exhibited a volatile rally in the evening, followed by a pullback overnight, suggesting mixed sentiment and active participation.

Structure & Formations

The 24-hour chart revealed a strong bullish engulfing pattern forming around 16:30–17:30 ET, confirming a reversal from bearish to bullish sentiment. A bearish engulfing candle at 02:15–02:30 ET and a shooting star pattern at 02:45–03:00 ET signaled renewed bearish pressure. Key support levels are emerging at 1.0200–1.0250 and 1.0100–1.0150, with resistance forming at 1.0400–1.0500 and 1.0600–1.0650. A doji observed at 02:00–02:15 ET suggests indecision at lower levels.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages crossed above key support levels during the evening rally, signaling bullish momentum. However, the 50-period MA has since crossed below the 20-period MA, forming a potential death cross pattern. On the daily chart, the 100-period MA remains above the 200-period MA, suggesting long-term bullish bias, although the 50-period MA is currently below both.

MACD & RSI

The MACD histogram showed a sharp positive expansion during the 19:30–21:30 ET rally, followed by a rapid contraction overnight, indicating waning bullish momentum. RSI spiked into overbought territory (70–80) during the rally but fell into oversold territory (25–30) during the pullback, suggesting potential for a bounce at key support levels. The RSI divergence with price during the overnight consolidation raises the likelihood of a rebound or continuation of bearish pressure.

Bollinger Bands

Price action remained near the upper Bollinger Band between 16:00–20:00 ET, indicating high volatility and strong buying pressure. After crossing below the middle Bollinger Band, the price traded within the lower band from 02:00–08:00 ET, suggesting oversold conditions. The bands have since widened again, reflecting renewed volatility, particularly around 09:00–10:30 ET and 14:00–16:00 ET.

Volume & Turnover

Volume surged above 3 million units during the 19:30–20:45 ET rally, aligning with price action and confirming the bullish breakout. Notional turnover peaked at ~1.2 million TRY during the 09:15–09:30 ET consolidation phase and again at 14:15–14:30 ET, indicating renewed accumulation. However, volume has declined in the past 6 hours despite ongoing price fluctuations, suggesting waning conviction and increased uncertainty.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracement to the 16:00–21:30 ET rally, key levels at 61.8% (1.0560) and 38.2% (1.0420) appear to have acted as resistance. The overnight pullback found support at the 23.6% level (1.0330) before falling further. On the daily chart, retracements from recent high to low suggest 38.2% (1.0350) and 61.8% (1.0050) as critical levels for near-term direction.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtesting strategy could focus on 15-minute candlestick breakouts above the 20-period MA, confirmed by rising volume and RSI above 50, with a stop-loss placed below the lower Bollinger Band or key support at 1.0200–1.0250. A trailing stop could be activated after a 3% price gain is achieved. Conversely, bearish setups could be tested on 15-minute breakouts below the 50-period MA, confirmed by declining volume and RSI below 30, targeting 1.0100–1.0050 as key Fibonacci support levels. This hypothesis aligns with the observed volatility and divergence in momentum indicators from the past 24 hours.