Market Overview for Lido DAO/Tether USDt (LDOUSDT)

• Price dropped from 1.2761 to 1.2349 amid a strong bearish reversal from a 24-hour high of 1.2792
• RSI signaled overbought conditions early in the session before a prolonged bearish phase
• Volume surged during the large 15-minute candle at 12:45 ET, which closed at 1.2494 from 1.2763
• Bollinger Bands showed expanding volatility during key price swings near 1.230–1.270 levels
• Momentum diverged sharply in the final 6 hours, indicating possible exhaustion of the current trend

LDOUSDT opened at 1.244 on 2025-09-10 12:00 ET and closed at 1.2349 by 12:00 ET the following day. Price reached a high of 1.2792 and a low of 1.2123 during the 24-hour period. Total trading volume amounted to 5,450,481.29 and notional turnover reached $6,805,857.55 (assuming USDt is stable at $1.00).

Structure & Formations

The 24-hour candlestick pattern showed a bearish bias with a key resistance forming near the 1.276–1.279 level and a strong support zone emerging at 1.230–1.240. A significant bearish engulfing pattern formed at 12:45 ET, signaling a possible reversal in buyer momentum. A doji near 1.2407–1.2412 at 15:00 ET suggested indecision and a potential consolidation phase. A large bearish candle with a 1.2763–1.2494 move confirmed the shift in market sentiment toward short-term weakness.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages formed a bearish crossover around 03:45–04:00 ET, reinforcing the downward bias. On the daily chart, the price closed below the 50-period SMA and is now approaching the 100- and 200-period lines, which could provide further bearish confirmation if broken. The 50/200 MA crossover remains neutral but has not yet shown a clear bearish signal at the daily level.

MACD & RSI

The MACD turned bearish in the final 4 hours, with a sharp decline in the histogram and a crossover of the signal line. The RSI dropped from overbought territory above 70 to below 40 within 3 hours, indicating strong bearish momentum. A potential divergence formed between RSI and price in the last 2 hours, suggesting the downtrend may face resistance near the 1.235–1.240 level.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands showed a wide expansion during the key 1.2763–1.2494 candle, indicating high volatility. Price has since contracted back into the bands but remains near the lower band, suggesting a bearish trend is in place. A contraction period began in the last 90 minutes of the 24-hour window, signaling possible consolidation before a breakout or reversal.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked dramatically during the 12:45 ET candle, with over 1.85 million tokens traded. This coincided with a sharp price drop, confirming bearish conviction. Notional turnover also surged during this period, aligning with the price move. However, in the last 3 hours, volume has declined, suggesting a potential exhaustion of the current downtrend and increased likelihood of a near-term bounce.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracements to the recent 1.2792–1.2349 swing, key levels appear at 1.2524 (38.2%) and 1.2483 (50%). These levels have acted as minor resistance during the 15-minute time frame. On the daily chart, the 61.8% retracement of the recent major bear wave is near 1.225–1.230, aligning with the key support zone identified earlier.

Backtest Hypothesis

The provided backtesting strategy emphasizes using a combination of RSI divergence and key Fibonacci retracement levels as triggers for trade entries. Specifically, the strategy would flag a short opportunity when RSI shows a bearish divergence and price approaches the 61.8% Fibonacci level. Given the current positioning of LDOUSDT near the 1.2349 level, this strategy may have flagged a short entry with a stop above 1.2483 and a target near 1.225. Backtesting this approach over similar market conditions may reveal its effectiveness in capturing mean-reverting bear trends.