Market Overview: Lido DAO/Tether (LDOUSDT)

Summary
• Price declined by 2.45% over the last 24 hours, closing at 0.7345 after testing key support levels.
• Volatility increased as the price moved between 0.716 and 0.7786, with mixed momentum in RSI.
• A bearish divergence appears in the RSI with a lower high on higher volume, hinting at further downside risk.

Lido DAO/Tether (LDOUSDT) opened at 0.7633 on the prior day (2025-11-03 at 12:00 ET), reached a high of 0.7786, and closed at 0.7345 by 2025-11-04 at 12:00 ET. Total volume for the 24-hour period was 13,444,078.09 LDO, with a notional turnover of $9,957,930. The pair experienced a volatile session, with a high-low range of 0.0626 and a negative close of 0.7345.

Structure & Formations

The price action over the last 24 hours formed a descending channel with resistance near 0.765 and support at 0.732–0.735. Key candlestick patterns included a bearish engulfing pattern around 2025-11-03 19:00 and several doji near the support zone, signaling indecision among traders. These formations suggest traders may continue testing the support levels before any potential reversal.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20- and 50-period moving averages have both been trending downward, reinforcing the bearish bias. On the daily chart, the 50-, 100-, and 200-period moving averages indicate a bearish alignment with the price action, as the pair remains below all three indicators. This suggests further consolidation or a potential breakdown below the key support level is likely in the near term.

MACD & RSI

The MACD has shown a bearish crossover with the signal line, and the histogram has been contracting, indicating waning momentum. The RSI remains in oversold territory, currently at 30.2, suggesting the asset may be due for a short-term bounce. However, the bearish divergence between price and RSI indicates caution is warranted, as the trend could continue lower.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility has increased, with the Bollinger Bands widening during the early hours of the session. The price has spent most of the period near the lower band, suggesting oversold conditions and potential for a mean reversion. However, the repeated failure to break above the mid-band indicates that the bearish trend remains intact.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked during the sharp decline from 0.7786 to 0.7345, with the highest single 15-minute turnover seen at 418,171.76 LDO on the 14:45–15:00 ET candle. Turnover and volume are aligned during the downtrend, providing confirmation of bearish momentum. No significant divergences were observed between price and volume.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci levels to the recent 15-minute swing from 0.732 to 0.7786, the 0.618 retracement level is at 0.751, which the price failed to hold. On the daily chart, the 0.618 retracement from the key swing high remains untested and could become a critical level if the pair recovers. A breakdown below 0.732 may trigger a move toward the next support at 0.724–0.726.

Backtest Hypothesis

To further evaluate potential entry and exit signals, a backtesting strategy could focus on identifying Bullish-Engulfing patterns on the 15-minute chart, which occurred during the early hours of the downtrend. A confirmed Bullish-Engulfing pattern would indicate a potential short-term reversal. However, due to current platform constraints, the backtest would either use daily bars or switch to an hourly proxy. If executed, a daily proxy would test the viability of such patterns in predicting short-term reversals using 1-day hold periods, which could help refine future intraday strategies for 15-minute setups like LDOUSDT.