Market Overview: Lido DAO/Tether (LDOUSDT) 24-Hour Price Action

• LDOUSDT declined sharply from a 1.2839 high to a 1.1813 low, showing bearish dominance.
• Price broke key support levels and entered oversold RSI territory below 30.
• Volatility expanded significantly, with Bollinger Band width reaching wide thresholds.
• Turnover surged during the midday sell-off, confirming bearish momentum.
• A 1.2000 psychological level appears to hold temporary support.

Lido DAO/Tether (LDOUSDT) opened at 1.2509 on 2025-10-03 at 12:00 ET and closed at 1.2018 on 2025-10-04 at the same hour. The pair hit a high of 1.2839 and a low of 1.1813, with a total trading volume of 35,145,892.93 and a notional turnover of approximately $43,598,130 (assuming $1 = 1.00). The price action reflects significant bearish bias.

Structure & Formations

Price formed a broad bearish trend, with the low of 1.1813 marking the most recent swing bottom. Notable bearish engulfing patterns emerged in the 15-minute timeframe between 15:30–16:00 ET and 01:15–01:30 ET, suggesting strong selling pressure. A large bearish candle on 2025-10-03 17:15 ET (close at 1.2542) confirmed breakdown of the 1.2600 level, triggering further selloff. The 1.2000 level appears to be a critical psychological support, currently holding on a final 15-minute candle.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20 and 50-period SMAs are both below the price, reinforcing the bearish bias. The daily chart shows the 50-period SMA at approximately 1.2450, with the 200-period SMA at around 1.2370. The price is currently below all major moving averages, indicating a potential continuation of the downtrend if the 1.1813 level fails to hold.

MACD & RSI

The 15-minute RSI approached 30 and is now in oversold territory at 27, indicating a potential pause in the selloff. However, the MACD remains bearish with a large negative histogram. The 1-hour RSI has yet to show any meaningful rebound, suggesting that momentum remains on the downside unless a strong reversal candle emerges.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded significantly throughout the session, with Bollinger Bands widening to accommodate the large move from 1.2839 to 1.1813. The closing candle on 2025-10-04 at 1.2018 sits near the lower Bollinger Band, suggesting exhaustion in the bearish move, though this may only be a temporary pause rather than a reversal.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked during the midday sell-off, with the 17:15–17:30 ET candle showing 1,495,131.72 volume and 1.2542 close. This high-volume breakdown of key support levels confirms the bearish move. A divergence in volume and price can be seen during the final 30 minutes of the session, where price stabilized but volume remained relatively low, hinting at potential consolidation ahead.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci to the recent swing high (1.2839) and the subsequent low (1.1813), the 61.8% retracement level currently sits at around 1.2250. Price has yet to test this level, and it may act as a short-term resistance or a potential pivot for a countertrend rally.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the bearish structure, oversold RSI, and volume confirmation of breakdown, a backtesting strategy could focus on short entries on breakouts below key support levels (e.g., 1.2000, 1.1813), with stop-loss placed just above the nearest Fibonacci retracement or a bullish reversal pattern. A long setup might emerge if price retests the 61.8% retracement level at 1.2250 with bullish candlestick confirmation and rising volume.