Market Overview: Lido DAO/Tether (LDOUSDT) on 2025-11-10

Summary
• Price opened at $0.8316 and closed at $0.8309, with a high of $0.863 and a low of $0.8257.
• Volume surged to 12.23 million contracts, with total turnover of $9.64 million.
• A bearish reversal pattern emerged, with price retreating from a 6.5% intraday high.

Market Overview

Lido DAO/Tether (LDOUSDT) experienced a volatile 24-hour session as of 12:00 ET on 2025-11-10. The pair opened at $0.8316 and hit a high of $0.863 during the evening hours (ET), before retreating sharply. The 24-hour close settled at $0.8309, a 0.07% drop from the open. Total trading volume reached 12.23 million contracts, with notional turnover of $9.64 million, suggesting heightened activity amid price swings.

The price action appears to show a bearish reversal as buyers failed to hold above $0.848, leading to a pullback toward key support levels. A bearish engulfing pattern developed around the $0.849 to $0.853 range, which could indicate increased bear pressure and potential for further downside.

Structure & Formations

The 15-minute chart reveals a strong bearish engulfing pattern formed around 20:30–21:30 ET on 2025-11-09, as the price opened at $0.8473 and closed at $0.844, engulfing the previous bullish candle. This pattern is a key bearish signal. Additionally, a lower pivot support level is forming near $0.8315, with a higher resistance around $0.848–$0.852.

Bollinger Bands show a moderate volatility expansion, with the price currently sitting just below the lower band, indicating a potential oversold condition.

MACD & RSI

The 15-minute MACD line turned negative and crossed below the signal line, confirming a bearish shift in momentum. The histogram shows a contraction in bullish energy. The RSI is currently at 30, suggesting an oversold condition, which could attract short-term buyers or lead to further bearish pressure if bear momentum continues.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked during the afternoon hours, peaking at 12:00–13:00 ET with a massive 1.22 million contracts traded at a turnover of $985,000. This coincided with the price dipping sharply below $0.835, indicating selling pressure. The divergence between high volume and declining price implies bearish conviction.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracements to the most recent swing high ($0.863) and low ($0.8257), key levels include 38.2% at $0.846 and 61.8% at $0.834. The current close of $0.8309 sits just below the 61.8% retracement level, suggesting a possible bounce or continued bearish move into the next support at $0.828–$0.830.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the bearish engulfing pattern observed, a backtest strategy could involve shorting LDOUSDT on days where the daily candle forms a bearish engulfing pattern, with an exit after 24 hours. This strategy, tested from 2022 to 2025-11-09, could offer insights into its viability. The use of daily close price data and a fixed 1-day holding period ensures consistency and avoids emotional exits.