Market Overview for Kyber Network Crystal v2/Tether USDt (KNCUSDT)

• KNCUSDT closed near the session low amid declining momentum and bearish volume confirmation.
• A key support level at $0.3705–0.3710 was tested, while resistance remains near $0.3750–0.3765.
• Volatility expanded in the early hours, with a sharp pullback observed after a bullish breakout attempt.
• RSI and MACD suggest bearish momentum may persist, with no overbought or oversold extremes reached.

The pair opened at $0.3728 on 2025-09-09 12:00 ET, reached a high of $0.3765, and a low of $0.3679 before closing at $0.3717 on 2025-09-10 12:00 ET. Total volume was 2,561,688.8 units, and notional turnover stood at $960,834.6 USD over the 24-hour period. A bearish bias emerged as price action failed to sustain above key resistance, and volume confirmed the downward move during the late session.

Structure & Formations

Price formed a bearish engulfing pattern around $0.3730–0.3750 during the early hours before failing to retest key support. A doji formed at $0.3726–0.3727, suggesting indecision. A large bearish candle on 2025-09-10 02:30–03:45 ET confirmed a breakdown of critical support, pushing price down toward $0.3684–0.3705.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20SMA and 50SMA both crossed below the price, forming a bearish death cross. On the daily chart, the 50DMA and 200DMA showed a bearish divergence, confirming the prevailing downtrend. The 100DMA acted as a dynamic resistance level, which price failed to breach.

MACD & RSI

MACD turned negative in the early morning and has remained below zero, signaling bearish momentum. RSI has ranged between 30–55 for most of the session, avoiding overbought or oversold extremes, but showing a moderate bearish bias. No significant divergence was observed between RSI and price.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility increased significantly during the early session, with the Bollinger Band width expanding. Price closed near the lower band at $0.3694–0.3705, indicating oversold conditions. The upper band hovered around $0.3750–0.3765, reinforcing resistance.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked during the breakdown to $0.3684–0.3690, confirming the bearish move. Turnover also surged during this period, with high-volume candles forming at key breakdown levels. Price and turnover aligned in bearish confirmation, suggesting conviction in the move lower.

Fibonacci Retracements

Key Fibonacci levels from the recent swing high at $0.3765 to the swing low at $0.3679 identified 38.2% at $0.3723 and 61.8% at $0.3701. Price found temporary support at the 61.8% level, but failed to bounce off it, hinting at potential for further downside.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtest strategy involves entering a short position on a close below the 20SMA and a bearish engulfing pattern, with a stop-loss above the 50SMA and a target at the 61.8% Fibonacci level. Based on today’s data, this setup was triggered during the 02:30–03:45 ET session, with a stop-loss at $0.3730 and a target near $0.3701. This approach aligns with the observed bearish momentum and volume confirmation, making it a viable short-term strategy in the current market environment.