Market Overview for Kyber Network Crystal v2/Tether (KNCUSDT)

• KNCUSDT declined 16.4% over 24 hours, closing at $0.2856 after a volatile bearish breakout.
• High volatility observed between 16:00–20:00 ET, with a sharp 10.6% rally attempt at 18:00 ET rejected.
• Bollinger Band contraction and RSI oversold conditions suggest potential for mean reversion.
• Volume surged 283% at 18:00 ET but failed to confirm bullish momentum, showing bearish divergence.
• Bearish Engulfing patterns formed near $0.306 and $0.293, aligning with Fibonacci retracement levels.

Kyber Network Crystal v2/Tether (KNCUSDT) opened at $0.2957 on 2025-10-13 at 12:00 ET and closed at $0.2856 at 12:00 ET on 2025-10-14. The 24-hour range was $0.2971 (high) to $0.2774 (low), with a total volume of 2,272,065.7 KNC and a turnover of approximately $649,000. The pair has shown a bearish bias, especially during the late afternoon and early evening hours, amid growing bearish divergence in volume and price.

The price action formed multiple bearish formations, including a key Bearish Engulfing at $0.3065–$0.3059 and a second one at $0.293–$0.2898. These patterns occurred on higher volume and were followed by continued bearish momentum. A Doji formed at 03:30 ET on 2025-10-14 near $0.2931, signaling indecision, but was quickly followed by a bearish continuation.

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages confirmed the bearish bias, with the 20 MA crossing below the 50 MA in a death cross formation during the early hours of 2025-10-14. The 50/100/200 daily moving averages are aligned bearishly, reinforcing the downward trend. Bollinger Bands contracted between 01:30–02:15 ET, followed by an aggressive expansion downward, indicating a breakout of oversold conditions.

MACD crossed below zero early on 2025-10-14, with bearish divergence between price and momentum. RSI hit 25 at 05:00 ET, a classic oversold level, but failed to rebound, suggesting exhaustion. The 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level from the high at $0.3065 and low at $0.2774 is currently at $0.2893, where the price found temporary support before continuing lower.

The price may find near-term support at $0.280–$0.279, with a risk of breaking below to test the psychological level of $0.275. Traders should monitor volume and RSI for signs of a potential reversal or continuation.

Backtest Hypothesis
Given the absence of a direct Bearish Engulfing indicator for KNCUSDT, we propose computing the pattern manually from the provided 15-minute OHLC data. A valid Bearish Engulfing candle is defined as a bearish body that completely engulfs the previous candle’s bullish body. These formation dates can then be used to back-test a short-side strategy. For confirmation, we suggest selling at the next candle’s open after the pattern is complete. A trailing stop-loss of 2% or a fixed stop at the 20-period moving average could be applied. Alternatively, a fixed profit target of 5% or at the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level could be used. If this approach is accepted, the back-test can be conducted using the 15-minute data provided.