Market Overview for Kyber Network Crystal v2/Tether (KNCUSDT)

• Price declined to a 24-hour low of $0.2596 before rebounding to close near $0.2671.
• Volatility expanded midday, with a sharp drop and a late rally confirming mixed sentiment.
• Volume spiked sharply during the low point, indicating potential short-term exhaustion.
• RSI and MACD showed divergence during the rally, suggesting caution on overbought momentum.
• Bollinger Bands widened during the drop, highlighting increased uncertainty and possible consolidation ahead.

Kyber Network Crystal v2/Tether (KNCUSDT) opened at $0.2698 on 2025-10-11 at 12:00 ET and closed at $0.2671 at 12:00 ET the next day. The 24-hour high reached $0.2744, while the low hit $0.2596. Total volume amounted to 4,083,425.2 with a notional turnover of $1,099,495.10.

Structure & Formations

The 15-minute candles revealed a strong bearish breakdown starting at 19:15 ET (2025-10-11), where a large bearish candle closed at $0.2665. This was followed by a multi-hour consolidation in a tight range until the afternoon of 2025-10-12, where a bullish reversal emerged. A notable bullish engulfing pattern appeared between 07:15 and 08:00 ET, confirming a short-term rebound. A doji near $0.2665 and $0.2744 signaled indecision at key psychological levels.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period EMAs intersected in a bullish crossover after 08:00 ET, providing directional support. On the daily chart, the 50-period EMA at $0.2690 acted as a short-term support, while the 200-period EMA at $0.2670 emerged as a potential floor.

MACD & RSI

The MACD turned positive during the 7- to 9-hour window on 2025-10-12, signaling a short-term bullish trend. RSI reached 60 during the rally and showed signs of overbought conditions but did not break above 65, suggesting limited conviction. Divergence between price and RSI during the last 3 hours raised questions about the sustainability of the rally.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands widened significantly during the midday low, reaching an expansion of +3σ at $0.2596 before narrowing during the late-day rally. The price closed near the upper band, indicating possible overbought conditions and a risk of near-term pullback.

Volume & Turnover

Volume surged during the bearish breakdown at $0.2665, with a 15-minute candle showing 195,906.5 volume. However, during the late-day rally, volume remained moderate despite a sharp price move, pointing to potential lack of follow-through. Turnover also diverged from price, with a lower turnover during the high of $0.2744 than expected, signaling weak conviction.

Fibonacci Retracements

The 15-minute swing from $0.2744 to $0.2596 was retraced at 38.2% (~$0.2660), where price paused before continuing the rally. Daily Fibonacci levels from the 10-day high at $0.2782 to the low at $0.2596 placed 61.8% at $0.2655, which appears to be a key near-term resistance zone.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtesting strategy aims to capture short-term reversals in KNCUSDT using a combination of RSI divergence, Bollinger Band expansion, and volume spikes. The strategy enters a long position when RSI diverges below price during a downtrend, price closes above the Bollinger Band midpoint, and volume confirms the reversal. The stop loss is placed at the 20-period EMA, and the take profit is at the nearest Fibonacci 38.2% or 61.8% level. This approach could be effective in capturing the recent 15-minute bullish reversal observed between 07:15 and 08:00 ET, particularly when supported by volume confirmation.