Market Overview for Kyber Network Crystal v2/Tether (KNCUSDT)

• Price dipped 1.06% over 24 hours, closing at 0.3400 after a bearish trend from 0.3464.
• Volatility expanded mid-session with a key rejection at 0.3484–0.3506.
• RSI and MACD showed bearish momentum, with volume confirming the downward bias.
• Bollinger Bands expanded as price settled near the lower band, signaling potential oversold conditions.
• Key Fibonacci support levels at 0.3420 and 0.3400 may hold in the near term.

Kyber Network Crystal v2/Tether (KNCUSDT) opened at 0.3464 at 12:00 ET–1 and traded between 0.3420 and 0.3506 over the next 24 hours, closing at 0.3400 at 12:00 ET. Total traded volume was 1,646,038.5, and notional turnover was approximately $565,297. The pair has shown bearish bias with significant volume and price divergence toward the end of the session.

Structure & Formations

The 24-hour chart displayed a bearish bias, with price forming a key rejection at the 0.3484–0.3506 swing high. A large bearish candle at 17:15 ET–1 (0.3484) confirmed a breakdown, followed by a consolidation phase around 0.3437–0.3464. A doji formed near 0.3459, suggesting indecision before the final leg down. Key support levels appear at 0.3420 and 0.3400, with 0.3392–0.3395 forming a potential stop zone.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20 and 50-period moving averages both declined, with the 20-period MA crossing below the 50-period MA in the afternoon, forming a bearish crossover. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA sits above the 100 and 200-period MAs, but the recent breakdown has put the 50-period MA under pressure. This suggests a potential bearish continuation unless the 0.3420–0.3440 zone holds.

MACD & RSI

The MACD remained bearish throughout the session, with the histogram contracting as the downtrend slowed. RSI dipped into oversold territory near the 30–32 level, which may indicate a potential rebound, but the divergence between RSI and price suggests further downside could follow. A close above 0.3420 could trigger a retest of RSI overbought levels, but a failure to hold above 0.3420 may extend the bearish momentum.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands widened during the mid-session pullback from 0.3484 to 0.3464 and then contracted again as the downtrend resumed. The final 15-minute candles closed near the lower band, signaling potential oversold conditions. However, the price has not shown signs of reversal yet, and a close below the lower band could trigger a further pullback.

Volume & Turnover

Volume was unevenly distributed, with a sharp spike at 17:15 ET–1 during the breakdown and again at 04:15–05:15 ET as the downtrend continued. Total turnover aligned with volume, confirming the bearish bias. Divergence occurred late in the session, as volume decreased while price continued to fall, hinting at potential exhaustion but not a clear reversal.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracements to the 0.3464–0.3420 swing, key levels at 0.3444 (38.2%) and 0.3432 (50%) were briefly tested, but the price failed to hold above 0.3440. The 61.8% retracement level is at 0.3420, which may act as a critical support for the near term. A breakdown below 0.3420 would point to the next key level at 0.3392–0.3395.

Backtest Hypothesis

The proposed backtest strategy involves a 20-period MA crossover with RSI divergence as entry triggers and Bollinger Bands as stop-loss and take-profit guides. Using the 15-minute timeframe, a long entry would occur when the 20-period MA crosses above the 50-period MA and RSI shows bullish divergence. A short entry is considered when the 20-period MA crosses below the 50-period MA and RSI shows bearish divergence. Stops are placed below/above the Bollinger Band, and profits are taken at 1.5× ATR or at the opposite Bollinger Band. The recent session provides a suitable environment to test this strategy, as the bearish MA crossover and RSI divergence are present, with the Bollinger Bands offering clear volatility boundaries.