Market Overview for Kyber Network Crystal v2/Tether (KNCUSDT)

• KNCUSDT formed a bullish breakout above 0.382 with strong volume, suggesting growing institutional interest.
• RSI and MACD signaled overbought conditions near 0.387, indicating potential short-term profit-taking.
• Volatility expanded during the NY session, with Bollinger Bands widening and price staying within upper bounds.
• A bearish divergence appeared between price and turnover after 0.386, hinting at possible near-term reversal.
• Fibonacci levels at 0.384 and 0.381 appear to act as immediate support and resistance in the 15-minute chart.

Kyber Network Crystal v2/Tether (KNCUSDT) opened at 0.3698 on 2025-09-17 12:00 ET, surged to 0.3877 before retreating to 0.3854 at 12:00 ET on 2025-09-18. The total traded volume over the past 24 hours was 1,088,964.3 KNC, with a notional turnover of $414,528.28. The pair displayed a strong bullish bias during the London and New York sessions, with a bearish consolidation phase unfolding since early morning ET.

Structure & Formations

KNCUSDT displayed a key breakout above 0.382, confirmed by a strong volume bar at 0.3864 and a bullish continuation at 0.387. A small bullish engulfing pattern formed near 0.385–0.386, suggesting short-term buyers may be in control. However, a bearish divergence emerged in the latter half of the morning session when price hit 0.387 but turnover dropped, potentially signaling exhaustion. The pair tested Fibonacci 61.8% (0.3846) and 38.2% (0.3814) levels multiple times, with 0.3846 acting as a pivot for short-term direction.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period EMAs were closely aligned, trending upwards as price broke above 0.383. The 50-period EMA is currently sitting at 0.385, slightly below the close, which suggests a strong near-term momentum. Daily data indicates the 50/100/200 EMAs are all trending upwards, reinforcing the broader bullish bias and suggesting that the trend remains intact unless price breaks below 0.3814, which would trigger a reassessment of the short-to-medium-term structure.

MACD & RSI

The 15-minute MACD crossed above the signal line near 0.386, confirming a bullish momentum shift. However, the RSI approached overbought territory at 73, indicating the pair may be due for a retracement. A bearish MACD divergence appeared during the consolidation phase, as price made higher highs but the MACD failed to follow through. RSI has since corrected toward 60, showing some moderation in buying pressure. This combination suggests cautious optimism: price may consolidate before resuming the bullish trend.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands widened during the NY session, with price staying within the upper band for much of the 24-hour period. The mid-band is currently at 0.3844, slightly below the close, suggesting that while volatility remains elevated, it is still within expected parameters. A contraction in the bands during the early morning ET hours followed by a re-expansion indicates that the market is still in a volatile phase, and breakouts or breakdowns should be watched closely.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked near 0.386 and 0.384, with the largest single candle showing 260,893.7 KNC traded at 0.384–0.385. Turnover spiked in tandem with price, but a bearish divergence emerged after the 0.387 level, where volume did not expand despite higher price. This divergence may hint at potential exhaustion among buyers, especially if price continues to consolidate between 0.384 and 0.387.

Fibonacci Retracements

Fibonacci retracements drawn from the 0.3673 to 0.3877 swing show key levels at 0.3846 (38.2%) and 0.3814 (61.8%), which have acted as pivot points multiple times. Price found support at 0.3846 and resistance at 0.387, with the 0.385–0.386 zone appearing to be a key cluster of liquidity. The 78.6% level at 0.379 is currently a distant support, and a break below 0.3814 could trigger a retest of that area in the coming 24 hours.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtesting strategy involves a combination of the RSI and MACD indicators. The RSI identifies overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) conditions, while the MACD is used to confirm trend direction and momentum. During the 24-hour period, RSI and MACD worked in concert to signal key entry and exit points. For example, a long entry could have been triggered when RSI crossed above 50 and the MACD crossed above the signal line near 0.386. A trailing stop could be placed just below a key support level, such as 0.3846. This strategy would benefit from high volatility and clear momentum, conditions that were present in the KNCUSDT trade during the past 24 hours.