Market Overview for Kyber Network Crystal v2/Tether (KNCUSDT)

• Price declined to 0.3333 before rebounding to close near 0.3443.
• High volatility seen with a 1.03% range and a 15-minute low of 0.3301.
• Volume surged to 177,925.7 after 04:15 ET as price dropped sharply.
• RSI indicated oversold conditions in the early session, followed by a moderate recovery.
• Key resistance appears near 0.3445–0.3450, with support at 0.3425–0.3430.

The KNCUSDT pair opened at 0.3446 on 2025-09-23 at 16:00 ET and closed at 0.3443 on 2025-09-24 at 12:00 ET. The 24-hour range was between 0.3301 and 0.3469, with a total volume of 1,018,321.5 and a notional turnover of 341.88 USD. The price experienced a sharp selloff early in the session, dipping to 0.3333 before stabilizing and finishing near 0.3443.

Structure & Formations

A significant bearish breakdown was observed in the early hours of the session, with a long bearish candle forming between 04:15 and 04:30 ET. This was followed by a consolidation phase and a bullish reversal attempt, forming a potential hammer pattern near 0.3428–0.3432. A key support zone emerged at 0.3425–0.3430, while resistance retested at 0.3445–0.3450.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period MA and 50-period MA crossed below price action at one point, confirming a short-term bearish bias. However, a recent convergence between these two indicators suggests a potential pause or reversal. On the daily chart, the 50- and 100-period MAs crossed near 0.3415, indicating mixed signals as price hovered just above this key moving average level.

MACD & RSI

The MACD turned negative during the selloff but showed a bearish divergence as price continued lower while momentum weakened. The RSI dipped into oversold territory (below 30) around 05:00 ET, suggesting a potential bounce. However, the recovery was weak, and the RSI remains in neutral to slightly overbought territory as of the 12:00 ET close.

Bollinger Bands

Price action fell below the lower Bollinger Band in the early morning, indicating high volatility and potential oversold conditions. As the session progressed, price moved back within the bands, with the upper band hovering near 0.3455 and the lower band around 0.3400. A contraction in band width was visible between 06:30 and 08:00 ET, suggesting a potential breakout scenario ahead.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked to 177,925.7 around 04:15 ET, coinciding with a sharp decline to 0.3333. This was the largest single 15-minute volume bar in the dataset. Notional turnover mirrored this spike, confirming the move. Later in the session, volume normalized as price stabilized. Divergence was noted in the afternoon hours as price rose but volume remained moderate, suggesting a potential exhaustion of buying pressure.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci to the 04:15–07:00 ET swing (0.3333 to 0.3425), key retracement levels at 0.3369 (38.2%) and 0.3397 (61.8%) were tested but failed to hold. A stronger support was identified at 0.3404 (78.6%), which became a key floor later in the session. On the daily chart, the 61.8% retracement level aligns with 0.3418, which the price briefly tested and bounced off.

Backtest Hypothesis

A possible backtesting strategy could leverage the combination of RSI divergence and moving average convergence on the 15-minute chart. For instance, a long entry could be triggered when the RSI crosses above 30 after a bearish divergence, and the 20-period MA crosses above the 50-period MA. A stop-loss could be placed at the nearest Fibonacci support level, while a take-profit target could aim for the 61.8% retracement of the recent bearish swing. This strategy may have captured the afternoon rally from 0.3425 to 0.3443. Further refinement could include volume confirmation to filter low-probability signals.