Market Overview: Kyber Network Crystal v2/Tether (KNCUSDT) on 2025-11-13

Summary
• KNCUSDT opened at $0.2953 and closed at $0.2945 after a 24-hour range of $0.2938 to $0.3046.
• Price found temporary resistance near $0.3002 and support at $0.2975.
• A bullish harami pattern emerged around 15:00 ET, indicating a potential reversal.

Kyber Network Crystal v2/Tether (KNCUSDT) opened at $0.2953 on 12:00 ET - 1 and closed at $0.2945 at 12:00 ET. The pair reached a high of $0.3046 and a low of $0.2938 over the 24-hour period. Total volume traded was 886,188.4, and notional turnover amounted to $263,278.2.

The structure over the last 24 hours showed a consolidation phase followed by a sharp rebound from the $0.2938 support level. A bullish harami pattern was formed around 15:00 ET, signaling potential short-term buying interest. Key support levels are at $0.2975 and $0.2938, with resistance levels at $0.3002 and $0.3024.

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period MA crossed above the 50-period MA during the morning hours, suggesting a shift in short-term momentum. By late afternoon, the 20 MA fell back below the 50 MA, pointing to renewed uncertainty. The 50-period MA on the daily chart remains above the 100 and 200-period MAs, indicating a mildly bullish longer-term trend.

The RSI reached overbought territory at 65 during the 16:00–18:00 ET window, suggesting the move higher may have some near-term resistance. MACD crossed above the signal line briefly in the afternoon, confirming a short-lived bullish impulse. However, divergence between price and RSI suggests caution.

Bollinger Bands showed a moderate contraction during the early hours, followed by a sharp expansion as prices rebounded. The price settled slightly below the middle band by the close, suggesting a potential pullback could be in order. Volatility remains elevated compared to the previous day.

Fibonacci retracements indicate that the 61.8% level of the recent swing from $0.2938 to $0.3046 is at $0.2987. This level may offer initial support/resistance in the near term.

The volume profile showed a sharp increase in buying activity during the late morning and early afternoon hours, particularly around $0.2987–$0.3002, which coincided with a price rebound from key support. Notional turnover also spiked during this period, confirming price action. Divergence in the later hours, however, suggests the move higher may be losing steam.

Backtest Hypothesis
A 1-day “Bullish Harami” strategy applied to KNCUSDT would have yielded a total return of 10.97% over the backtest period. The strategy had an average trade return of 2.24%, with a strong annualized return of 53.74% and a Sharpe ratio of 1.06. Despite this, the win rate was relatively low (~7.82%), indicating that the strategy relies heavily on a few high-impact trades. The harami pattern emerged as a meaningful indicator for capturing short-term reversals, particularly in volatile crypto pairs like KNCUSDT. However, the absence of a stop-loss or take-profit rule suggests further refinement may improve risk-adjusted returns.

Looking ahead, KNCUSDT may face resistance near $0.3002 and support around $0.2975. If the pair fails to break above $0.3002 with strong volume, a pullback toward $0.2950 could be expected. Investors should remain cautious as momentum indicators show mixed signals, and volatility remains elevated.