Market Overview for Kyber Network Crystal v2/Tether (KNCUSDT) – 2025-09-25

• KNCUSDT drifted lower over 24 hours, closing near intraday lows with bearish momentum.
• Key support tested near 0.3270–0.3280, with a deep selloff below the 20-period MA.
• High volume and turnover during extended downside suggest conviction in bearish sentiment.
• RSI and MACD indicate oversold conditions, though divergence hints at potential bounce.
• Volatility expanded in late trading, with price near the lower Bollinger Band.

Kyber Network Crystal v2/Tether (KNCUSDT) opened at 0.3438 on 2025-09-24 12:00 ET, reached a high of 0.3447, and closed at 0.3274 by 2025-09-25 12:00 ET. The price action saw a strong bearish drift, with the pair closing near the session low. Total volume for the 24-hour period was 1,306,709.1, while turnover amounted to $431,552. The move reflects a significant shift in short-term sentiment toward sellers.

Structure & Formations

The 15-minute chart showed a series of bearish engulfing patterns and long lower wicks, especially after the price broke below 0.3335. A key support zone developed between 0.3270 and 0.3280, where the price found some consolidation. A deep selloff below the 20-period moving average suggests bearish control, though a potential reversal could emerge if price retests this level with bullish volume.

Moving Averages and MACD/RSI

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages are in a steep downward slope, reinforcing the bearish bias. The MACD remains in negative territory, with the histogram showing a slow contraction, indicating that momentum may be reaching a trough. RSI has fallen into oversold territory, suggesting a potential for a short-term bounce, although bearish divergence between price and RSI indicates caution.

Bollinger Bands and Volatility

Volatility has expanded as the price has moved toward the lower Bollinger Band, particularly during the late trading hours of the session. A contraction in the band’s width was observed earlier in the session, indicating a period of consolidation before the breakdown. The current wide bands reflect a surge in short-term volatility, likely driven by aggressive selling.

Volume & Turnover

Trading volume spiked during the selloff, especially between 2025-0925 03:30 and 06:30 ET, with several 15-minute intervals showing volumes above 50,000 KNC. Notional turnover also surged in tandem with the price decline, suggesting that the move was supported by real selling pressure rather than thin liquidity. The price/turnover correlation strengthens the case for a short-term bearish continuation.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci levels to the recent high of 0.3447 and low of 0.3274, the 61.8% retracement level sits at 0.3334. This level has acted as a key resistance during the session, with multiple candle closes just below it. A break above this level could trigger a retest of the 0.3365–0.3375 zone, but until then, the 0.3270–0.3280 level remains the key battleground for near-term stability.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtesting strategy in question involves a mean-reversion approach, where a long position is triggered when the price closes above the 50-period moving average on the 15-minute chart and RSI moves out of oversold territory. This aligns with the current technical conditions, as KNCUSDT is near key support with RSI showing oversold divergence. A potential reversal could validate the strategy, though the broader trend remains bearish. Testing this setup on historical data may reveal how frequently such setups lead to profitable short-term bounces amid trending conditions.