Market Overview for Kite/USDC on 2025-11-08

• Kite/USDC drifted in a tight range but failed to break out above $0.0775.
• A bearish divergence emerged in RSI as volume declined despite higher prices.
• Bollinger Bands showed a contraction before a late-night price rejection at $0.0786.
• The 20-period MA provided initial support but was later tested and broken in the early morning.
• Volume surged after 01:15 ET, coinciding with a sharp price jump to $0.0786 but failed to hold gains.

Kite/USDC (KITEUSDC) opened at $0.0753 on 2025-11-07 at 12:00 ET and closed at $0.0744 the next day at the same time. During the 24-hour window, the pair reached a high of $0.0793 and a low of $0.0734. Total traded volume was 3,901,687.6 units with a notional turnover of $288,419.68. The price action was constrained by strong resistance at $0.0775 and support at $0.0756 throughout the session.

Structure & Formations

Price action formed a bearish flag pattern from 00:00 to 03:00 ET, consolidating near $0.076. A strong bullish candle on 01:15 ET pushed the price to $0.0786 but failed to sustain momentum. A key support level emerged at $0.0756 during a late-night test. A long-legged doji at $0.0744 at the 10:00 ET candle hinted at potential indecision among traders.

Moving Averages

The 20-period moving average on the 15-minute chart acted as a dynamic support zone earlier in the session, but by 06:00 ET, the 50-period MA started to slope downward, suggesting a shift in momentum. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA remained above the 100- and 200-period MAs, indicating long-term bullish bias despite the recent consolidation.

MACD & RSI

MACD showed a bearish crossover around 04:30 ET, confirming a short-term bearish momentum. RSI hit overbought territory at 73 on 01:15 ET, but failed to break 75 before dropping below 50 by 06:00 ET. This divergence suggests weakening bullish conviction and increasing bearish pressure.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands tightened between 03:00 and 05:00 ET, signaling a period of consolidation and a potential breakout. However, the late surge to $0.0786 failed to close above the upper band, leading to a rejection and a pullback into the middle band by morning. The price stayed within the bands for most of the session, indicating low volatility.

Volume & Turnover

Volume was relatively muted in the early hours but spiked to over 445,000 units at 01:15 ET as prices surged to $0.0786. This surge failed to translate into lasting bullish momentum as volume dropped sharply afterward. Notional turnover also peaked at $33,759 at 01:15 ET, but volume and price failed to confirm a breakout above $0.0786, hinting at a false positive.

Fibonacci Retracements

On a 15-minute swing from $0.0734 to $0.0793, the $0.0768 level corresponded to the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement and acted as a temporary support. The 61.8% retracement at $0.0762 was later tested and broken in the morning. On the daily chart, the 61.8% level at $0.0766 has been a recurring support zone over the past week.

Backtest Hypothesis

To test the robustness of the current patterns and indicators, a backtesting strategy can be developed. For example, if we assume a trading strategy that enters long on a bullish engulfing pattern and holds for 5 days or until a bearish engulfing pattern is triggered, we can evaluate its viability. Assuming the pattern is evaluated on the 15-minute close price and we apply a stop-loss at -5% and a take-profit at +8%, we could assess the profitability of the strategy from 2022-01-01 to today (2025-11-08). Given the recent volatility and the key levels identified in this analysis, a well-tuned entry and exit rule could capitalize on the range-bound structure and the late surges seen in the data.