Market Overview: Kamino Finance/Tether (KMNOUSDT) – Volatility and Divergence in a 24-Hour Bearish Shift

• Kamino Finance/Tether (KMNOUSDT) closed lower after a volatile 24-hour session marked by sharp retracements and bearish momentum.
• Key support tested near 0.0715, with resistance clustered around 0.0725–0.0730; price failed to hold above 0.0724 in late ET trading.
• Volume surged during bearish breakouts, with 21M traded; turnover diverged from price during key reversals.
• RSI signaled overbought conditions early, followed by a sharp sell-off into oversold territory.
• Volatility expanded significantly during the 14:00–16:00 ET window, with Bollinger Bands widening.

Kamino Finance/Tether (KMNOUSDT) opened at 0.07216 on 2025-10-09 at 12:00 ET and closed at 0.07224 the following day at 12:00 ET. The pair reached a high of 0.07433 and a low of 0.06859, reflecting a wide 24-hour range. Total volume traded amounted to 11.0M and total turnover stood at $766.8K. The 24-hour period featured a sharp bearish trend after earlier attempts at consolidation and modest bullish moves.

Structure & Formations

The candlestick pattern over the 24-hour window showed a bearish bias, particularly after the price broke below key support levels. A bearish engulfing pattern was observed at 0.0722–0.0714 (16:00–17:00 ET), followed by a long lower wick during the 15:00–16:00 ET period, indicating rejection of higher prices. A doji formed near 0.0718 at 20:30 ET, suggesting indecision among traders. Key support levels were identified at 0.0715 and 0.0712, while resistance appeared at 0.0725 and 0.0730.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages crossed bearishly during the 18:00–20:00 ET timeframe, reinforcing the downtrend. For the daily chart, the 50/100/200 SMA lines were not available for full calculation due to insufficient data, but the 15-minute MA patterns provided sufficient insight into the bearish momentum.

MACD & RSI

The MACD showed a bearish crossover on the 15-minute chart during the 20:00–21:00 ET period, aligning with the price decline. The RSI spiked into overbought territory at 78 during the 14:00–15:00 ET window but dropped sharply into oversold territory by 16:00 ET. This divergence signaled exhaustion of the bullish move and heightened bearish momentum.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded significantly from 14:00 to 16:00 ET, with the Bollinger Bands widening to reflect increased market uncertainty. Price remained below the lower band between 15:30 and 16:00 ET, indicating oversold conditions. The price later bounced slightly above the middle band during the 10:00–11:00 ET period but failed to sustain the move.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked during key bearish movements, particularly between 15:00 and 16:00 ET (volume: 1.1M) and again from 15:00 to 16:00 ET (volume: 1.4M). Turnover diverged from price during a brief rally between 05:00 and 07:00 ET, where the price rose but volume remained relatively subdued. This divergence suggests a lack of conviction in the bullish move.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci levels to the recent 15-minute swing from 0.07433 to 0.06859, the 38.2% level is at 0.0719 and the 61.8% level at 0.0732. The price tested the 38.2% level on multiple occasions, particularly during the 10:00–11:00 ET timeframe, before retreating. On the daily chart, the Fibonacci retracement levels from recent highs and lows provided a structural context for the bearish breakdown.

Backtest Hypothesis

A backtest strategy could be built on the observed divergence between price and RSI during the 14:00–16:00 ET window. When RSI moved into overbought territory and price failed to close above the 0.0730 resistance, it signaled a high-probability short entry. A sell stop could be placed below the 0.0725 level with a target at 0.0715 and a stop-loss at 0.0730. This setup could be tested on past 15-minute candles to evaluate its profitability across similar price patterns.