Market Overview: Kamino Finance/Tether (KMNOUSDT) – Sharp Downturn and Early Rebound

• KMNO/USDT dropped sharply from $0.069 to $0.03001 after 7 PM ET, reflecting a key bearish breakdown.
• Volume spiked over 7 million after 9 PM ET, confirming the breakdown move.
• Price has since rebounded to $0.061–$0.062 from a low of $0.03001, showing early signs of retesting.
• RSI hit oversold levels near 20, suggesting possible short-term recovery.
• Bollinger Bands expanded after the drop, indicating heightened volatility.

KMNO/USDT 24-Hour Summary

Kamino Finance/Tether (KMNO/USDT) opened at $0.06938 on 2025-10-10 12:00 ET, peaked at $0.07008, and reached a low of $0.03001 before closing at $0.06129 on 2025-10-11 12:00 ET. Total volume reached 63.4 million, with a notional turnover of $3.7 million. The pair experienced a sharp bearish reversal in the evening, followed by a partial rebound in the early hours.

Structure & Formations

Price action shows a critical breakdown from $0.068 to $0.03001 after 7 PM ET, confirming a large bearish engulfing pattern. A key support level appears at $0.05709, where buyers paused further declines overnight. Rebound above $0.062 could signal a potential reversal, but a bearish bias remains in place.

Moving Averages and Momentum

On the 15-minute chart, price closed below both the 20- and 50-period SMAs after 9 PM ET, reinforcing the bearish trend. RSI dropped to 19–22 in the overnight session, indicating oversold conditions. However, MACD has shown a bearish crossover with a weak histogram. A short-term bounce is possible, but sustained buying above $0.062 may be needed for a shift.

Volatility, Volume, and Turnover

Bollinger Bands expanded significantly during the breakdown, with price hitting the lower band at $0.03001. The largest volume spike occurred at $0.0668–$0.068, confirming the bearish move. However, turnover has decreased in recent hours, suggesting reduced conviction in the bearish move. Price-volume divergence may support a near-term rebound.

Fibonacci Retracements

Fibonacci retracement levels for the $0.03001–$0.06129 move suggest key levels at 38.2% ($0.0451) and 61.8% ($0.0506). A close above $0.062 could trigger a retest of the 50% level ($0.0456), but a failure to hold above $0.05709 may extend the decline toward $0.0500.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtesting strategy for KMNO/USDT could involve a reversal setup at the 38.2%–61.8% Fibonacci range combined with oversold RSI (<25). Entries could be triggered on a close above $0.062, with a stop just below $0.05709. A target could be placed at $0.066–$0.068, aligning with the earlier support-turned-resistance. This setup could be backtested using 15-minute data from the last month to evaluate win/loss and risk/reward ratios.