Market Overview for Kamino Finance/Tether (KMNOUSDT) - October 23, 2025

• Kamino Finance/Tether (KMNOUSDT) declined by 2.5% over 24 hours, with bearish pressure intensifying in the latter half.
• Key support at 0.0573 and resistance near 0.0595 defined recent price swings, with a bearish breakdown below 0.0590.
• RSI and MACD showed weakening momentum and bearish divergence, suggesting further downward risk.
• Volatility expanded during the selloff, with the 20-period MA turning bearish and Bollinger Bands widening.
• Divergence between price and volume suggests distribution may be underway at lower levels.

Kamino Finance/Tether (KMNOUSDT) opened at 0.05954 on October 22 at 12:00 ET and closed at 0.05927 on October 23 at 12:00 ET. The pair hit a high of 0.06145 and a low of 0.05666 during the 24-hour period. Total traded volume amounted to approximately 30.45 million KMNO, with a notional turnover of around $1.78 million. Price action has shown a distinct bearish bias, especially after the 0.05826 candle on October 22.

Structure & Formations

The past 24 hours revealed a bearish breakdown from the 0.0590–0.0595 resistance cluster, with a significant low at 0.05666 acting as a potential support base. A key bearish pattern occurred on October 22 at 21:15 ET, where a long-legged bearish candle formed with a high of 0.05826 and a close near 0.05735. This was followed by a series of lower closes, suggesting distribution. A possible 0.0573 support level may hold for now, but a break below could target the 0.0562–0.0565 area. No bullish engulfing patterns appeared during the period, with bearish momentum dominating.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages have turned bearish, with the 20 MA crossing below the 50 MA to signal a potential downtrend. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA is currently above the 200-period MA, indicating a neutral-to-bearish setup. The 100-period MA has also crossed below the 200-period MA, reinforcing the bearish bias. If the price fails to close above 0.0595, the longer-term averages could reinforce downward momentum.

MACD & RSI

The MACD has turned negative, with the histogram contracting slightly in the last few hours, suggesting fading bearish momentum. The RSI has fallen into oversold territory around 30–35, indicating potential near-term support. However, a bearish divergence is evident between price and RSI, with the latter not making lower lows while the price continues to decline. This may signal a deeper pullback rather than a reversal unless volume increases on a rebound.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands have expanded over the last 24 hours, reflecting increased volatility. The price has oscillated near the lower band since breaking below 0.0590, suggesting continued bearish pressure. A close above the 0.0590–0.0595 mid-band could initiate a retracement, but given the current momentum and volume profile, such a move would likely be short-lived.

Volume & Turnover

Trading volume increased notably during the key breakdown below 0.0590, especially in the October 22 21:15 ET to 23:30 ET window. Notional turnover spiked as the price dipped below 0.0575, indicating strong bearish conviction. However, volume has since declined on lower prices, suggesting that sellers are becoming exhausted. A key area to watch is whether volume picks up again on a rebound—this could validate a reversal or indicate further capitulation.

Fibonacci Retracements

On the 15-minute chart, the recent high of 0.05992 and low of 0.05666 align with key Fibonacci levels. The 0.0578–0.0581 area corresponds to the 61.8% retracement level and has shown some support. On the daily chart, the 38.2% and 61.8% retracements align with previous swing highs and lows, which could act as psychological levels for traders. The 0.0573–0.0575 level appears to be the strongest potential support zone based on these ratios.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the observed bearish divergence in RSI, the breakdown of key resistance levels, and the volume profile indicating distribution, a backtest could be designed to capture short-term bearish momentum. A potential strategy would involve entering short positions when the price closes below the 0.0590–0.0595 range with confirmation via a bearish candlestick pattern (e.g., a long lower wick or a bearish engulfing). Stops could be placed slightly above key resistance levels, while targets aim for key Fibonacci support zones (0.0573 and 0.0562). Given the observed volatility, a 1–2% stop-loss might be prudent, with target sizes of 3–5%. This approach could be optimized by incorporating the 20-period MA as a filter to avoid false signals during consolidative phases.