Market Overview: Kamino Finance/Tether (KMNOUSDT) 24-Hour Summary

• Price surged from $0.0748 to $0.07935 before consolidating near $0.0745
• Volatility expanded during midday, with peak $0.08045 and $0.08126 high
• RSI and MACD signal oversold conditions, indicating potential near-term rebound
• Volume surged to 7.5M KMNO during the 21:45 ET candle, matching a sharp price break
• Bollinger Bands showed contraction in morning, then expansion with a low close outside the lower band

Kamino Finance/Tether (KMNOUSDT) opened at $0.0748 on 2025-10-03 12:00 ET and closed at $0.0745 on 2025-10-04 12:00 ET. The 24-hour high reached $0.07935, and the low hit $0.07313. Total volume traded over the period was 49.8M KMNO, and notional turnover amounted to $3.67M, based on average prices.

The 15-minute chart showed a strong bullish thrust starting at 16:45 ET, where the pair broke above a key resistance level near $0.0758, reaching $0.07816 by 22:15 ET. A Hammer pattern formed around $0.0765 and $0.0770, suggesting potential bullish reversal. However, price failed to hold the $0.0782 level and entered a pullback phase.

The 20-period and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart crossed above the price late in the session, forming a bullish crossover, though price has since pulled back below both. The 50-period MA is currently at $0.0763, offering a near-term support level. MACD showed a bullish crossover in the afternoon before diverging with price in the last hours. RSI hit an oversold level of 27 during the late-night consolidation phase, indicating potential for a bounce.

Key Support & Resistance

Immediate support is at $0.0745 (last close), with $0.0741 and $0.0735 as deeper levels. Resistance is expected at $0.0765, $0.0772, and $0.0782. A bearish Engulfing pattern formed on the 01:00–01:15 ET candle, suggesting short-term bearish pressure.

Bollinger Bands narrowed significantly in the early morning, indicating low volatility, before expanding with a sharp drop toward the lower band. This suggests price may test the $0.0735–$0.0740 range in the near term.

Fibonacci Retracements

On the 15-minute chart, the recent high of $0.07935 and low of $0.07313 align with Fibonacci retracement levels. The 61.8% retracement is at $0.0763, coinciding with the 50-period MA. A break above $0.0772 could target the 78.6% level at $0.0782.

Volume and Turnover Divergence

Volume spiked at 21:45 ET with a 7.5M KMNO trade, but price declined afterward, indicating a bearish divergence. Turnover remained elevated during this time, suggesting active selling pressure despite the volume.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtest strategy could involve buying on a bullish engulfing pattern at key support levels with a stop loss below a recent swing low. Given the 15-minute chart's recent bearish divergence and oversold RSI reading, a short-term long trade might be considered near $0.0740–$0.0745, with a target at $0.0763 and a stop at $0.0731. This approach aligns with the observed Fibonacci retracement and moving average signals, offering a risk-reward ratio of approximately 1.5:1.