Market Overview for Kamino Finance/Tether (KMNOUSDT) – 2025-11-11

Summary
• Price opened at $0.06254 and closed at $0.06227 over the 24-hour period.
• Intraday high reached $0.06448, while the low fell to $0.06192.
• Volume increased significantly in the morning hours, with total volume of ~4.9 million KMNO and turnover at ~$309.7K.

Kamino Finance/Tether (KMNOUSDT) closed at $0.06227 on 2025-11-11, down from the 12:00 ET open of $0.06254. The 24-hour range spanned $0.06192 to $0.06448, with a total trading volume of 4.9 million KMNO and turnover of approximately $309.7K. The price action suggests a bearish bias over the last 24 hours, with a failed attempt to hold above $0.0632.

Structure and formations on the 15-minute chart reveal several key levels. A bearish breakdown appears to have occurred below $0.0632, which acted as a short-term support-turned-resistance. A potential short-term support level forms at $0.0625–$0.0628, indicated by multiple bullish and bearish reversals in that range. A strong engulfing bearish pattern appeared near $0.064, suggesting a likely continuation lower.

The 20-period and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart show a bearish crossover, reinforcing the downward trend. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA is slightly above the 100- and 200-period MAs, which suggests a neutral-to-bearish medium-term outlook. The price appears to be below all key moving averages, indicating a bearish bias in both short and medium-term horizons.

Momentum indicators suggest a mixed picture. The RSI is currently in mid-range territory, hovering near 50, indicating a lack of strong overbought or oversold conditions. The MACD line is below the signal line with a bearish divergence forming, suggesting potential for continued downward movement. Volatility as measured by Bollinger Bands appears to have expanded in the late morning hours, with the price trading near the lower band at $0.0622–$0.0625, indicating a possible continuation of the bearish trend.

Volume and turnover patterns reinforce the bearish tone. A sharp increase in volume occurred during the late morning and early afternoon hours, coinciding with the breakdown below $0.0632. Notional turnover spiked during the peak volatility phase, aligning with price declines. Divergence is not observed, as both volume and price action confirm the bearish move.

Applying Fibonacci retracements to the recent 15-minute swing from $0.06448 to $0.06192, key levels are at $0.06333 (38.2%) and $0.06258 (61.8%). The price has bounced near the 61.8% level multiple times but has failed to establish a clear bullish trend. On the daily chart, retracement levels suggest $0.0627 and $0.0630 as potential short-term supports.

The “Bullish Engulfing 5-Day Hold” strategy, as tested on KMNOUSDT from 2022-01-01 to 2025-11-11, has shown unprofitable results, with a total return of approximately -21.5% and a Sharpe ratio of -1.50. This suggests that the signal alone lacks predictive power without additional filtering. The average trade return of -5.6% indicates that losses outweigh gains, with losses averaging -9.4% per trade. This highlights the importance of incorporating trend confirmation, stop-loss levels, or other filters to improve strategy performance.