Market Overview for Kamino Finance/Tether (KMNOUSDT): 2025-11-02

• Price declined from 0.063 to 0.0595 over 24 hours, with bearish momentum intensifying in the second half.
• Volatility expanded as price broke below key support levels and tested the 0.0595 psychological floor.
• A bearish engulfing pattern formed on the 15-minute chart during the early morning session.
• Volume and turnover spiked during the downward leg, confirming bearish conviction.
• RSI and MACD indicate overbought conditions reversed into oversold territory, signaling exhaustion.

Kamino Finance/Tether (KMNOUSDT) opened at 0.0625 on 2025-11-01 at 12:00 ET and closed at 0.0595 on 2025-11-02 at 12:00 ET, with a high of 0.06328 and a low of 0.05872 over the 24-hour period. Total volume amounted to approximately 29.5 million, with a notional turnover of $1.79 million. The pair has seen pronounced bearish pressure, especially after a key support break in the late afternoon.

Structure & Formations

Price formed a clear bearish engulfing pattern during the early morning session on 2025-11-02, with a candle opening at 0.062 and closing significantly lower at 0.05985. This pattern is a strong short signal, especially in the context of declining momentum. Notable support levels include 0.0595 and 0.0590, while resistance is now likely consolidated near the 0.0605–0.0610 range. A doji formed in the late afternoon session, signaling indecision and potential for a short-term rebound.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period SMAs are in steep decline, reflecting strong bearish bias. Price remains below both, indicating downward pressure. On the daily chart, the 50, 100, and 200 SMAs show a bearish alignment, with price trading comfortably below all three. This reinforces the idea that the broader trend is negative, though a pullback to the 20 SMA may trigger a short-term bounce.

MACD & RSI

The MACD crossed into negative territory and remains bearish, with a declining histogram. RSI has dropped into oversold territory (below 30), suggesting a short-term bounce is possible, but not a reversal. The combination of MACD and RSI suggests exhaustion on the downside, but without a strong reversal pattern, the path of least resistance remains lower.

Bollinger Bands

Price has expanded outside the lower Bollinger Band multiple times over the past 24 hours, indicating heightened volatility. The widening of the bands reflects increased uncertainty and risk. Currently, price remains near the lower band, suggesting the bearish trend is intact, though a rebound into the middle band could offer a temporary respite.

Volume & Turnover

Volume surged during the critical bearish leg in the afternoon, with over 900,000 units traded in the session that closed at 0.0595. Notional turnover spiked in line with volume, indicating strong conviction behind the move lower. A divergence between price and volume is not evident at this time, suggesting the bearish move is supported by strong participation.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci to the recent 15-minute swing from 0.06328 to 0.05872, key levels of interest include the 38.2% retracement at 0.0612 and the 61.8% at 0.0602. Price appears to have bounced off the 61.8% level on a few occasions, suggesting it may hold in the near term. On the daily chart, the 61.8% retracement of the longer-term move is near 0.0595, aligning with a key support level that could determine the next direction.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential strategy for this pair involves shorting at confirmed bearish engulfing patterns and exiting after a 15-minute holding period. Given the high-frequency nature of the dataset, this could yield insights into intraday sentiment and trend exhaustion. A daily proxy is a feasible first step, using the next day’s open as an entry and closing the position at the same day’s close. This approach can quickly evaluate the pattern’s profitability but will miss the precise 15-minute dynamics. A full backtest would require access to intraday OHLCV and a script to automate pattern detection and execution.