Market Overview for Kamino Finance/Tether (KMNOUSDT) – 2025-10-06

• Price dropped from 0.0868 to 0.0813 on high volume.
• Key support at 0.0820–0.0825 held into early afternoon.
• Volatility expanded after 4 AM ET as price tested lower.
• RSI and MACD signaled bearish momentum in early morning.
• Turnover surged during the 4–6 AM ET sell-off, confirming bearish bias.

Kamino Finance/Tether (KMNOUSDT) opened at 0.08629 on 2025-10-05 and closed at 0.08171 by 12:00 ET on 2025-10-06. The 24-hour high and low were 0.08719 and 0.08131, respectively. Total volume reached 33.8 million, with a turnover of ~$2.96 million. The pair experienced a bearish reversal pattern over the past 24 hours, with bearish momentum intensifying after 4 AM ET.

Structure & Formations

The price of KMNOUSDT formed a strong bearish trend over the last 24 hours, with a clear breakdown from the 0.0850–0.0860 resistance zone. A key support level at 0.0820–0.0825 appears to have held temporarily in the early afternoon, but selling pressure re-emerged after 4 AM ET, pushing the pair to a 24-hour low of 0.0813. Multiple bearish engulfing patterns appeared between 4 AM and 7 AM ET, particularly around the 0.0823 to 0.0815 range, indicating aggressive shorting activity. A doji formed at 0.0817 at 4:45 AM ET, suggesting a brief pause in the downtrend.

Moving Averages and MACD/RSI

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period SMAs both crossed below the price action early on October 6, reinforcing the bearish bias. The 50-period SMA sat at ~0.0830 at the end of the 24-hour window. The MACD crossed into negative territory just after 3 AM ET and remained bearish through the close. RSI, which had been hovering near 50 for most of the session, dropped to ~27 by 6 AM ET, signaling oversold conditions. However, the lack of a meaningful rebound from that level suggests weak buying interest.

The 50-period daily SMA appears to have acted as a bearish bias line on the broader chart, with price trending below it for most of the period. The 100-period and 200-period SMAs were also below the current price, reinforcing the downtrend.

Bollinger Bands and Volatility

Bollinger Bands showed increasing volatility from 3 AM to 6 AM ET, with the upper band at ~0.0840 and the lower band at ~0.0820. The price action collapsed into the lower band by 5 AM ET, with the 0.0813 low nearly reaching it. This contraction in the bands, followed by a rapid expansion, indicates a period of high market uncertainty and aggressive distribution.

Volume and Turnover

Volume spiked to ~1.95 million between 4:15 AM and 4:30 AM ET, coinciding with the price breaking below 0.0825. Total turnover also spiked during this period, reaching ~$165,000, which suggests strong bearish conviction. However, volume declined slightly during the rebound from 0.0813 to 0.0817 in the early morning, indicating weak follow-through buying. This divergence between price and volume may point to a potential exhaustion of the current bearish move, though confirmation is still pending.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracement levels to the 0.0868 to 0.0813 swing, key levels to watch include the 38.2% at 0.0844 and the 61.8% at 0.0826. The price briefly tested 0.0826 on its way down to 0.0813 before bouncing off it. A close above 0.0826 in the next 24 hours could signal a short-term consolidation, while a break below 0.0813 may indicate further bearish momentum.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtest strategy for KMNOUSDT could involve entering short positions on bearish engulfing patterns confirmed by a close below the 20-period SMA and a MACD crossover into negative territory. Stops could be placed slightly above the high of the engulfing candle, with targets at 38.2% and 61.8% Fibonacci levels. This approach would align with the observed price behavior, particularly in the 4–6 AM ET timeframe when volume and momentum indicators signaled strong bearish bias.