Market Overview for Kamino Finance/Tether (KMNOUSDT) on 2025-10-03

• KMNOUSDT traded in a 24-hour range of $0.0727–$0.0772, closing near the upper half after a midday rally.
• The pair showed clear bearish momentum divergence in RSI and volume contraction in late hours.
• A key 15-minute pivot at $0.0750 appears to have failed as support, triggering a pullback.
• Volatility expanded during the afternoon before compressing in early morning, indicating consolidation.
• Total turnover hit $43.6 million, with volume concentrated in bearish closes and weak buying during upswings.

Kamino Finance/Tether (KMNOUSDT) opened at $0.0732 on 2025-10-02 at 12:00 ET and closed at $0.0735 on 2025-10-03 at 12:00 ET. The 24-hour high was $0.0772, and the low was $0.0727, with total traded volume of 10,785,635 tokens and notional turnover of $43.6 million. Price action reveals a distinct bearish bias as buyers failed to reclaim key resistance levels during the afternoon rebound.

Structure & Formations

The 15-minute chart shows a bearish engulfing pattern at the peak of $0.0772, followed by a bearish flag formation in the late afternoon. A key 15-minute support at $0.0750 was broken during the morning hours, confirming a shift in sentiment. A doji candle at $0.07367 in the early morning suggests hesitation and possible short-term consolidation. The price has been range-bound between $0.0730 and $0.0775 for the last 24 hours, with the 20-period 15-minute SMA acting as a dynamic resistance line near $0.0745–$0.0750.

Moving Averages

The 20-period and 50-period 15-minute moving averages remain bearishly aligned, with the 20 SMA above the 50 SMA. On the daily chart, the 50-day SMA sits at $0.0755, acting as a key psychological barrier. The 200-day SMA at $0.0760 remains above the current price, indicating a long-term bearish trend. Crossovers or retests of the 50 SMA may signal a short-term turning point.

MACD & RSI

The 15-minute MACD is negative and diverging with price as volume diminishes in the morning, suggesting weakening bullish momentum. RSI has spent much of the day in neutral territory (40–60) and briefly touched overbought levels (70+) during the midday rally. A bearish crossover in the MACD histogram has occurred, aligning with the RSI divergence. The RSI has since retraced to 55, indicating potential for further consolidation or a short-term pullback.

Bollinger Bands

Price has spent the bulk of the 24-hour period trading within the Bollinger Band channels, with volatility contracting in the early hours and expanding during the afternoon breakout attempt. The upper band reached $0.0775 during the peak rally, with price closing near the lower band at $0.0735. A tightening of the bands in the early morning suggests a potential breakout could be imminent, but the failure to hold above $0.0750 indicates bearish bias.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked during the afternoon rally, with a total of 999,945 tokens traded at the $0.0772 peak. However, the notional turnover was low, indicating weak conviction from large buyers. In contrast, early morning volume was relatively light, with a bearish close at $0.0735 on thin volume. The divergence between volume and price action—high volume with weak price retention—suggests profit-taking and bearish exhaustion from the recent rally.

Fibonacci Retracements

On the 15-minute chart, the recent $0.0727–$0.0772 swing shows a 38.2% retracement at $0.0752 and a 61.8% retracement at $0.0739, with price currently sitting near the 61.8% level. The daily Fibonacci levels from a larger swing indicate a critical 61.8% level at $0.0735, where current support appears to be holding. A break below this level could open the door to a test of the 38.2% retracement at $0.0728.

Backtest Hypothesis

For a potential backtesting strategy, consider a short-biased mean-reversion trade triggered by RSI divergence and a close below the 20-period SMA on the 15-minute chart. A sell entry would be activated at the close of a candle where RSI turns down from overbought levels and volume declines. Stop-loss could be placed near the recent 15-minute high at $0.0772, with a take-profit at the 61.8% Fibonacci level of $0.0735. This approach would align with the observed bearish divergence and weak buying pressure seen in the 24-hour data.