Market Overview for Kamino Finance/Tether (KMNOUSDT) on 2025-09-23

• Price declines from 0.07862 to 0.07093 with bearish momentum.
• RSI near oversold territory, signaling possible near-term bounce.
• Volatility remains high, with Bollinger Bands expanding after a contraction.
• On-balance volume shows divergence after 0.07500 level.
• 20-period MA fails to cross above 50-period MA, confirming bearish bias.

Kamino Finance/Tether (KMNOUSDT) opened at 0.07746 on 2025-09-22 at 16:00 ET and closed at 0.0717 on 2025-09-23 at 16:00 ET, reaching a high of 0.07862 and a low of 0.07093. Total volume across the 24-hour period was 67,914,394.0, with a notional turnover of $4,961,299.51.

Structure & Formations

Price action on KMNOUSDT suggests a bearish bias over the past 24 hours. A key support level appears to have formed around 0.0722–0.0726 as the price bounced back from that range multiple times. Resistance appears to be in the 0.0760–0.0766 area, with failed attempts to break through and confirm a reversal. A notable bearish engulfing pattern emerged around 2025-09-22 at 17:00 ET as the candle closed significantly lower than its opening. Later in the session, a long-legged doji at 0.07615 and a hanging man at 0.07594 signaled weakening bullish momentum.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period MA remains below the 50-period MA, indicating continued bearish momentum. On the daily timeframe, the 50-period MA crossed below the 100 and 200-period MAs earlier in the week, forming a death cross and reinforcing a bearish outlook. Price action remains below all three moving averages, suggesting further downward pressure in the short term.

MACD & RSI

The MACD line has crossed below the signal line and remains in negative territory, reflecting bearish momentum. RSI is currently at 27.3, nearing oversold territory, but divergence between price and RSI indicates caution. Price is declining while RSI is not declining at the same rate, which may signal a potential near-term bounce, though not a reversal in trend.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands have expanded significantly following a contraction at the start of the 24-hour period, indicating increased volatility. Price is currently trading below the 20-period MA and sitting near the lower band, suggesting the possibility of a bounce from this support zone. The recent volatility suggests the market is reacting to external factors or news rather than internal momentum.

Volume & Turnover

Volume has shown a sharp increase during the afternoon and evening hours of 2025-09-22, especially between 16:15 ET and 17:30 ET, as the price broke below key support levels. Turnover spiked when the price was in the 0.0760–0.0766 range, indicating significant selling pressure during that period. A divergence between volume and price is evident as the price continued to fall despite decreasing volume after 0.0740, which could signal a temporary consolidation or exhaustion of bearish momentum.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracement levels to the recent 0.07862–0.07093 swing shows the 61.8% retracement at approximately 0.0748 and the 38.2% retracement at 0.0756. Price has bounced off the 38.2% level on multiple occasions, suggesting it may act as a short-term support. On a daily chart, the 200-day Fibonacci retracement is at 0.0771, which the price may test in the next 24 hours if it finds a temporary bottom.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtesting strategy involves entering a short position when the 20-period MA crosses below the 50-period MA on the 15-minute chart, provided the RSI is above 50 to avoid false signals. A stop-loss is placed at the 20-period MA, and a take-profit is set at the nearest Fibonacci retracement level. Given the current bearish momentum and confirmation from the moving average crossover, this strategy could be applied to the current price action. However, the RSI near oversold levels introduces uncertainty, and a failure to hold key supports may invalidate the short-biased assumption.