Market Overview for Kamino Finance/Tether (KMNOUSDT): 2025-09-22

• Price opened at $0.08723 and closed at $0.07739 over 24 hours, showing a bearish trend.
• Volatility expanded mid-day, with a peak high of $0.08992 and low of $0.07421 during the session.
• RSI and MACD suggest weakening momentum with potential oversold conditions emerging.
• Volume surged at key turning points, particularly around 06:15 ET, confirming bearish sentiment.
• Bollinger Bands indicate a potential consolidation phase near $0.076–$0.078.

Market Overview

Kamino Finance/Tether (KMNOUSDT) opened at $0.08723 on 2025-09-21 at 12:00 ET and closed at $0.07739 on 2025-09-22 at 12:00 ET. The 24-hour high was $0.08992, while the low dropped to $0.07421. The total volume traded was approximately 56,209,589.0, and the notional turnover reached around $4,760,000. The pair exhibited significant bearish momentum, especially after a sharp decline from $0.0891 to $0.0789 during the early morning session.

Structure & Formations

The price action revealed multiple bearish setups, including a shooting star pattern near $0.0891 at 17:00 ET and a bearish engulfing pattern at $0.08575 to $0.08464 between 18:15 and 18:30 ET. A key support level formed near $0.076–$0.078 as price bounced off this range multiple times. A resistance zone appears to be developing around $0.082–$0.084, where the price stalled during several attempts to rise above it. A doji appeared at 04:15 ET near $0.082, signaling indecision.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period SMAs both dipped below the price, confirming a bearish bias. For the daily chart, the 50-period SMA sits at $0.083, the 100 at $0.086, and the 200 at $0.087. Price is comfortably below all three, which suggests a continuation of the downward trend unless it breaks above the 50 SMA in the near future.

MACD & RSI

The MACD line has turned negative, crossing below the signal line and showing bearish divergence. The histogram has shrunk slightly in the last 15-minute candles, indicating a slowing in the rate of decline. RSI has dropped to around 30, entering oversold territory, but without a clear reversal pattern forming, further downside appears probable. The RSI has yet to show a definitive bounce, so caution is warranted.

Bollinger Bands

Price remains near the lower band of the Bollinger Bands, having spent much of the session in the lower 1/3 of the band range. This suggests high volatility and a continuation of bearish pressure. A strong rejection off the lower band at $0.07421 on 06:15 ET followed by a rebound implies that traders are eyeing this area as a potential support level. A contraction in the band width occurred between 05:30 and 06:00 ET, which historically has been a precursor to a breakout.

Volume & Turnover

Volume surged significantly at key turning points, especially during the 06:15 ET candle where the price dropped to $0.07421 on a volume of 8,972,109. This confirms strong bearish participation. However, a divergence appears in the second half of the day, where price continued to fall but volume declined, suggesting exhaustion. Total notional turnover of $4.76 million indicates moderate liquidity, but with high volatility, this may not be sufficient for a large-scale reversal.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracements to the swing high at $0.08992 and the swing low at $0.07421, key levels lie at $0.0838 (38.2%), $0.0807 (50%), and $0.0775 (61.8%). Price has held above $0.0775 and is currently consolidating around $0.0773–$0.0775, suggesting $0.0775 may act as a short-term floor. A break below this could accelerate the decline toward $0.07421.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtest strategy described focuses on a confluence of bearish candlestick patterns, oversold RSI conditions, and breaks below key moving averages as signals for short entries. Given the current structure, a potential trigger point may occur if price breaks below $0.0773 with confirmation via a close under $0.0770 and a bearish engulfing pattern. A stop-loss could be placed above $0.0790, with a target near $0.0740. This approach aligns with the observed behavior in the last 24 hours and could be optimized by including a trailing stop based on Bollinger Band expansions.