Market Overview for Kamino Finance/Tether (KMNOUSDT): 2025-09-20

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• Price declined from 0.08875 to 0.08188, forming a bearish trend with 0.083–0.084 as key resistance.
• A bearish engulfing pattern formed near 0.08505, confirming downward momentum.
• Volatility expanded during the 17:00–20:00 ET window with a sharp drop to 0.08201.
• RSI entered oversold territory, suggesting potential reversal, but volume remains subdued.
• Bollinger Bands widened during the selloff, indicating increased market uncertainty.

Kamino Finance/Tether (KMNOUSDT) opened at 0.08319 on 2025-09-19 12:00 ET and closed at 0.08242 on 2025-09-20 12:00 ET, with a high of 0.08875 and a low of 0.08188. The 24-hour volume amounted to approximately 93,470,201.0, with a notional turnover of ~7,863.2 (based on sum of volume × price). The pair experienced a bearish bias throughout the session.

Structure & Formations

The price action displayed a bearish breakdown from the 0.085–0.086 consolidation range into a lower band. A bearish engulfing pattern formed at 0.08505, with a close at 0.08501 and an open at 0.08508. This suggests a possible continuation of the downward move. The 0.0832–0.0835 range may now act as a critical support cluster, with a breakdown likely to target 0.0820–0.0818. A potential bullish reversal candle forming above 0.0835 could signal a short-term bounce.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, price has closed below both the 20 (0.0840) and 50 (0.0838) SMAs, indicating a bearish bias. The 200-period daily SMA is not available for the 15-minute chart but is likely in a longer-term bearish alignment. Daily 50/100/200 SMA data is not provided, but the price is likely below the 200 SMA, suggesting a continuation of the bearish trend may be favored unless a strong reversal occurs.

MACD & RSI

The RSI reached a low of ~25 on the 15-minute chart, indicating an oversold condition. This could suggest a short-term bounce or consolidation phase ahead, but bearish momentum remains strong as seen in the MACD, which has remained below its signal line with negative divergence. The MACD histogram has been contracting, signaling that the bearish momentum may be losing steam.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility increased significantly during the early bearish move, expanding the upper and lower Bollinger Bands from 0.086–0.088 to 0.082–0.084. The current price is near the lower band, suggesting it may either find support or continue downward if the trend remains intact. A retest of the upper band during a potential bounce should be closely monitored for confirmation.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked during the key breakdown period (17:00–19:45 ET) with a peak at 2,471,862.0, suggesting strong bearish conviction. However, volume has since declined, especially in the morning of 2025-09-20, indicating reduced participation and potential exhaustion in the downtrend. Notional turnover followed a similar pattern, declining after the initial selloff, which may imply a period of consolidation or a sideways correction.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci to the recent 0.08188–0.08875 swing, the 61.8% level is ~0.0839, which could act as a pivot point. The 38.2% retracement level is ~0.0856, and the 23.6% is ~0.0867. A rebound off 0.0835 could find resistance at the 61.8% level, offering a potential entry for short-term traders.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the current bearish structure and oversold RSI, a potential backtest strategy could be to look for a bullish reversal candle with volume confirmation above 0.0835. A long entry could be considered on a break above the 0.0835–0.0838 range, with a stop below 0.0825 and a target at 0.0845–0.0850. This strategy would aim to capitalize on a potential short-term bounce within a larger bearish trend.