Market Overview for Kaia/Tether (KAIAUSDT) – October 8, 2025

• Price fell from 0.1446 to 0.1396, with a 24-hour low near 0.1396 and a high of 0.1446.
• Momentum weakened through the session, with RSI nearing oversold territory near 30.
• Volatility expanded on the lower end of Bollinger Bands, with volume spiking during the selloff.
• A bearish engulfing pattern formed at 0.143, suggesting potential for further downside.
• Turnover remained consistent, though price and turnover diverged during key selloff periods.

Market Summary

Kaia/Tether (KAIAUSDT) opened at 0.1441 on October 7, 2025, and traded between 0.1396 and 0.1446 before closing at 0.1396 at 12:00 ET on October 8. The 24-hour trading session saw a total volume of 15,118,181.0 and a notional turnover of approximately $2,126,089. The pair appears to be consolidating in a bearish channel, with key support and resistance levels emerging.

1. Structure & Formations

Price action over the 24-hour period formed a clear bearish bias, with several bearish engulfing candles, including a key one at 0.143. This pattern typically suggests a continuation of downward momentum. Additionally, a doji near 0.1422 indicates indecision in the market, potentially signaling a temporary pause before further movement. Support levels have emerged around 0.1404 and 0.1396, while resistance is found at 0.1422 and 0.143.

2. Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages have both moved lower, with the 20-period line crossing beneath the 50-period line earlier in the session, reinforcing the bearish bias. On the daily chart, the 50, 100, and 200-period moving averages are aligned in a downtrend, with the price currently trading below all three, suggesting continued bearish momentum.

3. MACD & RSI

The MACD has been negative throughout the session, with the histogram contracting toward zero, indicating weakening momentum. The RSI has dropped to around 30, nearing oversold territory, which could suggest a potential short-term bounce. However, without a strong reversal in price or volume, a bearish continuation remains probable.

4. Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands have widened, with price testing the lower band multiple times. The most significant break came at 0.1396, suggesting a potential shift in volatility and a possible continuation of the bearish trend. Price has spent much of the session near the lower band, indicating bearish pressure.

5. Volume & Turnover

Volume has spiked during key bearish moves, particularly in the latter half of the session, supporting the downward move. However, at times, price and turnover have diverged, particularly near 0.1424, where volume did not confirm the bearish breakout. This suggests some uncertainty in the market, though the overall bearish sentiment remains strong.

6. Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracement levels to the most recent 15-minute swing from 0.1446 to 0.1396, the 38.2% and 61.8% retracement levels are at 0.1419 and 0.1404, respectively. Price has bounced near both levels, indicating potential resistance and support. For the broader daily swing, similar retracement levels may provide near-term targets.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtesting strategy described involves entering short positions on 15-minute candle closures below key Fibonacci support levels (38.2% and 61.8%) while using RSI as a confirmatory filter. Short entries would be triggered when RSI drops below 30 and remains below 40 for two consecutive periods, and stops would be placed above the 61.8% level. The strategy also includes a target at the 38.2% retracement or the next lower support level. Given the current price proximity to the 61.8% level and the RSI nearing 30, this approach aligns with the observed bearish bias and could provide a data-driven method to capture potential short-term declines.