Market Overview for Kadena/Bitcoin (KDABTC) - September 22, 2025

• Price fell from 3.29e-06 to 3.03e-06, closing at 3.05e-06.
• Volatility expanded, with a 24-hour range of 0.26e-06.
• Volume surged during key declines, suggesting bearish momentum.
• RSI approached oversold territory in the late session.
• Bollinger Bands showed a recent contraction followed by an expansion.

Kadena/Bitcoin (KDABTC) opened at 3.29e-06 on September 21 at 12:00 ET and closed at 3.05e-06 on September 22 at 12:00 ET, with a high of 3.29e-06 and a low of 2.95e-06. Total volume was 200,582.78, and total turnover was approximately 626.94 BTC. The pair has shown a strong bearish bias, with multiple pullbacks failing to hold key levels.

Structure & Formations

The 24-hour OHLCV data reveals a bearish breakdown from 3.29e-06 to 3.03e-06, with a key bearish engulfing pattern forming at 3.29e-06 to 3.27e-06. A long lower shadow appears in the 01:00–01:15 ET window, signaling a failed attempt at a reversal. A series of doji and pinbar formations in the 03:00–04:00 ET window suggest indecision, but the price continues lower. Support is forming at 3.03e-06 and 2.95e-06, while resistance is located at 3.12e-06 and 3.15e-06.

Moving Averages

Using 15-minute data, the 20- and 50-period moving averages are both trending lower, indicating sustained bearish pressure. The 20-period MA is below the 50-period MA, forming a bearish crossover. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA has crossed below the 200-period MA, a bearish “death cross” that reinforces the negative trend. The price is currently below both the 50- and 200-period MAs, confirming its bearish positioning.

MACD & RSI

The MACD has been negative for most of the 24-hour period, with a bearish crossover in the 06:15–06:30 ET window. The histogram has widened, indicating accelerating downward momentum. The RSI reached a low of approximately 28 at 03:15 ET, entering oversold territory and suggesting the possibility of a short-term bounce. However, a bearish divergence appears in the 04:00–06:00 ET window, as price continues to fall while RSI remains in neutral to oversold levels.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands displayed a period of contraction from 02:00–03:30 ET, followed by a sharp expansion as the price broke through the lower band to hit 2.95e-06. The recent volatility expansion suggests a potential for continuation of the downward move. Price has spent much of the session below the 20-period Bollinger Band lower boundary, reinforcing the bearish bias.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked during key declines, particularly between 06:15–06:30 ET and 09:45–10:00 ET, confirming bearish momentum. Notional turnover (price × volume) aligns with volume spikes, indicating strong conviction in the downward move. However, a divergence appears in the 02:00–02:30 ET window, where volume drops despite continued price declines, suggesting potential exhaustion.

Fibonacci Retracements

On the 15-minute chart, the price broke below the 61.8% retracement level of the 3.29e-06–3.23e-06 range, reinforcing the bearish case. On the daily chart, the 61.8% retracement level of the 3.29e-06–3.03e-06 move sits at approximately 3.16e-06, a key potential short-term resistance. The 38.2% level at 3.18e-06 may act as a near-term floor if the price stalls at 3.03e-06.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtest strategy could involve a bearish breakout system that triggers a short entry below the 61.8% Fibonacci level and a stop above the 3.16e-06 resistance. The system would target a stop loss at 3.20e-06 and a take-profit at 2.95e-06. Given the recent volume confirmation and bearish pattern formation, this setup appears well-aligned with the current price structure and momentum. The RSI’s oversold reading may also allow for a short-term counter-trend bounce trade into the 3.12e-06–3.15e-06 resistance cluster, offering a risk-defined trade with defined reward potential.

The market appears to be testing key support levels, and a break below 3.03e-06 could target 2.95e-06. However, a pullback to 3.12e-06 should be monitored for potential short-term stability. Traders should remain cautious of a potential reversal if RSI holds above 30 and volume declines.