Market Overview for Kadena/Bitcoin (KDABTC) – October 3, 2025

• Kadena/Bitcoin (KDABTC) closed at 3.08e-06 after a volatile 24-hour period, trading between 3.04e-06 and 3.17e-06.
• Momentum signals mixed, with RSI hovering near neutral and MACD showing bearish divergence.
• Volatility spiked during early New York session, but volume failed to confirm directional strength.
• Bollinger Bands constricted mid-session, followed by a sharp break lower.
• Fibonacci levels at 3.07e-06 and 3.10e-06 appear key for near-term support and resistance.

At 12:00 ET – 1, Kadena/Bitcoin opened at 3.13e-06 and traded as high as 3.17e-06 before settling at 3.08e-06 by 12:00 ET. The 24-hour range was 3.04e-06 to 3.17e-06, with total volume amounting to 36,353.15 and a notional turnover of approximately $113.89 (assuming $100,000 BTC price).

Structure & Formations

Price action formed a bearish continuation pattern after a midday rejection from 3.17e-06 resistance. A significant bearish engulfing pattern emerged around 20:45 ET as the pair dropped from 3.15e-06 to 3.12e-06. A doji appeared at 22:15 ET near 3.09e-06, signaling indecision. A sharp bearish breakdown occurred after 00:00 ET, with price testing support levels at 3.07e-06 and 3.05e-06.

Moving Averages and MACD/RSI

On the 15-minute chart, the 20 and 50-period SMAs crossed into bearish alignment in the late evening, confirming a downward shift. The MACD turned negative with bearish divergence as price bottomed near 3.05e-06, while RSI remained in neutral territory, suggesting neither overbought nor oversold conditions.

Bollinger Bands and Volatility

Volatility contracted briefly between 00:15 and 01:15 ET, as the Bollinger Bands narrowed. Price broke to the downside soon after, closing near the lower band. This expansion indicates potential for continued bearish movement or a short-term rebound toward the mid-band.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked during the critical breakdown at 00:00 ET, with a 11,304.40 trade volume spike. However, after 03:00 ET, volume dried up as the price consolidated near 3.08e-06. Turnover remained subdued during the final hours, suggesting a lack of conviction in the current trend.

Fibonacci Retracements

On the 15-minute chart, the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level at 3.07e-06 provided temporary support before a break. The 61.8% level at 3.05e-06 may serve as a critical floor for the next 24 hours. On the daily chart, a retest of the 50% retracement level could determine whether the pair consolidates or resumes bearish pressure.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtest strategy could involve a short signal triggered on a bearish engulfing pattern, confirmed by a break of the 20-period SMA and bearish MACD divergence. A stop-loss could be placed above the 3.10e-06 resistance level, with a target at 3.05e-06. Given the volatility observed in the overnight hours, this strategy may be best suited for high-timeframe traders who can monitor key retracement levels. Historical data would need to validate the pattern’s effectiveness in similar low-volume, high-volatility environments.