Market Overview for Juventus Fan Token/USDC (JUVUSDC) – September 16, 2025

• JUVUSDC traded in a 24-hour range of 1.128–1.176 with a 15-minute closing price of 1.141 on 2025-09-16 at 12:00 ET.
• A sharp decline followed a large bullish impulse, suggesting short-term exhaustion and bearish momentum.
• Volatility spiked during the overnight session due to a large-volume candle pushing price to 1.176 before a sharp reversal.
• RSI and MACD confirmed the sell-off, with RSI showing oversold conditions and MACD diverging from price highs.
• High volume during the overnight rally contrasts with weak follow-through, indicating potential bearish divergence.

JUVUSDC opened at 1.144 on September 15 at 12:00 ET, reached a high of 1.176, and a low of 1.128 before closing at 1.141 on September 16 at 12:00 ET. Total volume was 104,307.25, and turnover amounted to 117,867.54 USDC, reflecting elevated trading activity and volatility in the overnight session.

Structure & Formations

The price structure over the past 24 hours revealed a strong bearish reversal pattern after a brief overnight rally. The 23:30 candle on the 15-minute chart surged from 1.135 to 1.171 with massive volume (8,978.43), representing a sharp impulse move. This was followed by a bearish engulfing pattern from the 00:00 candle and a series of small bearish bodies, signaling exhaustion in the bullish momentum. A doji formed at 00:15 and 01:30, suggesting indecision at key levels. The price has since been consolidating around 1.140–1.145, with a potential support at 1.136 and resistance near 1.150.

Moving Averages

Short-term moving averages (20- and 50-period) on the 15-minute chart are currently bearish, with the 50-period MA below the 20-period, indicating downward bias. On the daily chart, the 50- and 100-period MAs are in a tight convergence, but the 200-period MA remains as a strong support level. The price is below all three daily MAs, reinforcing a bearish trend. A break above the 50-period MA could signal a potential short-term reversal, but confirmation will be needed on higher timeframes.

MACD & RSI

The MACD (12,26,9) for the 15-minute chart has turned sharply negative, confirming the bearish momentum after the overnight spike. The histogram is expanding in the negative territory, indicating increasing bearish pressure. RSI on the same timeframe has moved into oversold territory around 30, suggesting potential for a short-term bounce. However, a divergence between RSI and price may emerge if the price remains below 1.144. Daily RSI is still neutral, but the recent sharp decline could push it below 50, reinforcing the bearish bias.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands on the 15-minute chart have expanded during the overnight move, reflecting heightened volatility. The price briefly breached the upper band during the 23:30 candle before retracing sharply. It has since consolidated near the middle band, suggesting a potential retesting of the lower band as support. A move below 1.136 could trigger a further contraction of the bands and continued bearish momentum. Volatility is expected to remain elevated until a clear direction emerges.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked sharply during the overnight rally, with the 23:30 candle alone accounting for 8,978.43 volume. However, subsequent candles showed significantly lower volume, indicating a lack of follow-through. This volume divergence suggests the bullish move was driven by large orders with limited retail or institutional follow-through. Turnover also spiked during the same period, confirming the significance of the move. However, the sharp reversal and lack of volume in the subsequent bearish candles suggest the initial rally may have been a trap.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracements to the overnight move from 1.135 to 1.171, key levels include 1.155 (38.2%) and 1.142 (61.8%). The price is currently consolidating around the 61.8% level, which may serve as a support or pivot point. A break below this level would likely target 1.136 and 1.128 as the next key Fibonacci levels. On the daily chart, the 38.2% retracement of the larger move remains untested and could offer resistance if the price rebounds.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtesting strategy for JUVUSDC could involve a reversal-based approach, entering short positions after the formation of a bearish engulfing pattern or a doji near key Fibonacci levels, particularly the 61.8% retracement. A stop-loss could be placed just above the 50-period MA or the high of the preceding bullish impulse candle. A take-profit target might be set at the next Fibonacci level (38.2% or 1.136) or a key support zone. This approach aligns with the recent bearish momentum and potential exhaustion in the bullish move, offering a high-probability setup for the next 24–48 hours.