Market Overview for Jupiter/Tether USDt (JUPUSDT)

• Price surged to 0.5041 before retreating, closing near 0.4969 on high volume.
• Strong bullish momentum in early ET hours, followed by bearish divergence in afternoon.
• Volatility expanded midday, with JUPUSDT trading within an expanding Bollinger Band.
• RSI showed overbought conditions before sharp reversal, signaling potential exhaustion.
• Turnover peaked at 794,015.8 Tether, with large volume spikes confirming key breakouts and breakdowns.

Jupiter/Tether USDt (JUPUSDT) opened at 0.4786 on 2025-09-04 12:00 ET, surged to 0.5041, and closed at 0.4969 at 12:00 ET on 2025-09-05. Total 24-hour volume was 2,259,127.3, and turnover reached 1,124,123.4 Tether, indicating strong liquidity and trading interest.

Structure & Formations

The price action displayed a strong bullish breakout in the early ET hours, forming a series of higher highs and higher lows. A key resistance was broken near 0.5041, but a bearish divergence in the RSI followed a sharp reversal. A large bearish candle formed in the afternoon, printing a low of 0.4893 and closing near the low, suggesting exhaustion in the bullish momentum. A doji candle was observed near 0.4949, indicating indecision in the market.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages were in bullish alignment, with the 20-period MA ahead of the 50-period MA. This indicated a strong upward trend during the early hours. However, the 50-period MA started to turn downward in the late ET afternoon, hinting at a potential bearish shift.

MACD & RSI

The MACD line surged into positive territory in the early morning, confirming the bullish breakout. However, a bearish crossover occurred in the early afternoon, signaling a shift in momentum. The RSI hit overbought territory above 70 and then collapsed, forming a bearish divergence. This divergence suggests that the bullish move may have lacked conviction, increasing the likelihood of a further decline.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded significantly during the midday surge, with the upper band reaching 0.5041. The price initially traded near the upper band, indicating high volatility and a strong move. However, the price then fell sharply below the middle band in the late afternoon, suggesting a breakdown in the bullish momentum. The bands are now wider, indicating that the market is in a phase of heightened uncertainty.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked significantly during the early ET hours and again in the afternoon. The largest volume spike occurred at 12:45 ET, coinciding with a sharp drop from 0.5041 to 0.4987. Turnover also mirrored this, with the most active hour being in the afternoon. The price and volume divergence in the late ET period suggests that the bearish move may not yet be complete, and further consolidation is likely.

Fibonacci Retracements

Key Fibonacci retracement levels from the 0.4786 to 0.5041 move include 0.4895 (38.2%), 0.4925 (50%), and 0.4955 (61.8%). The price briefly touched 0.4955 in the late ET session before retreating. This level may now serve as a key area of support. If the price breaks below 0.4925, further downside to 0.4895 and 0.4865 could be expected.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the recent price action, a potential backtest strategy could focus on identifying short-term reversals at key Fibonacci levels. For instance, a buy signal could be generated on a bullish close above 0.4925 after the price has consolidated for two consecutive 15-minute candles. A stop-loss could be placed below 0.4895, with a target at 0.4965. This approach leverages the observed volatility and Fibonacci retracement behavior, aligning with the observed divergences in the RSI and MACD.