Market Overview: Jupiter/Tether (JUPUSDT) – October 5, 2025

• JUPUSDT posted a 24-hour high of $0.4774 amid a volatile session driven by strong buying interest in the early hours.
• Price retraced to near $0.4575 during the afternoon as sell pressure emerged after reaching key resistance.
• Momentum indicators suggest overbought conditions earlier in the day, followed by a shift toward consolidation.
• Volatility expanded with a high-low range of ~4.47%, driven by surges in volume during bullish and bearish phases.
• Notable bullish divergence formed between price and RSI late in the session, hinting at potential recovery.

Jupiter/Tether (JUPUSDT) opened at $0.4463 on October 4 at 12:00 ET and closed at $0.4646 on October 5 at 12:00 ET, with a daily high of $0.4774 and low of $0.4462. Total 24-hour volume amounted to 6,901,084.08 JUP, with notional turnover of $3,207,739. The pair exhibited a wide range of volatility amid shifting sentiment and key support/resistance tests.

Structure & Formations

Price action on JUPUSDT revealed a bullish breakout in early trading, forming a strong 15-minute bullish engulfing pattern at $0.4543–$0.4547. The move was followed by a bearish rejection near $0.4773, forming an incomplete descending triangle pattern. Key support levels at $0.4618 and $0.4540 were repeatedly tested, with the former holding during a late-day pullback. A doji formed near $0.4645 at 14:15 ET, signaling indecision after a sharp rally.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, price closed above both the 20-period and 50-period SMAs, indicating short-term bullish momentum. The 50-period SMA at $0.4612 and 20-period SMA at $0.4642 acted as dynamic support and provided a short-term floor. On the daily chart, the 50-day SMA (not directly observable) likely resides around $0.4550–$0.4600, with the 200-day SMA offering a longer-term benchmark for trend direction.

MACD & RSI

The MACD crossed into positive territory during the morning surge, with a strong histogram peak around $0.4730. RSI peaked above 70 during the same period, signaling overbought conditions. A subsequent pullback pushed RSI to ~53 by the close, indicating neutral momentum. A bullish divergence formed between price and RSI in the final hours, suggesting potential for a short-term rebound if support at $0.4618 holds.

Bollinger Bands

Price traded within a wide Bollinger Band setup, with the upper band reaching $0.4775 and the lower band sitting near $0.4540. Volatility expanded in the early hours, with a notable contraction observed between 17:30 and 19:30 ET as volume waned. The closing candle near $0.4646 sits slightly below the 20-period SMA, indicating some weakening of bullish conviction.

Volume & Turnover

Volume surged in two key waves: the first during the morning rally from $0.4592 to $0.4774 and the second during the afternoon sell-off near $0.4600. Notional turnover spiked above $150k during these phases, confirming strong participation from institutional and retail traders. A divergence emerged between the late-day price rebound and muted volume, which may point to a lack of conviction in the recovery.

Fibonacci Retracements

Recent 15-minute swings placed 38.2% and 61.8% retracements at $0.4668 and $0.4599, respectively. These levels aligned with key support/resistance clusters observed during the session. On the daily chart, a 61.8% retracement of the October 3–5 move sits near $0.4605, which appears to be a short-term floor for the pair.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtest strategy for JUPUSDT could involve a breakout system triggered at the close of a 15-minute candle forming above the upper Bollinger Band, confirmed by a bullish engulfing pattern and RSI above 60. This setup would enter a long position with a stop-loss placed below the recent swing low at $0.4618 and a target at the 61.8% retracement at $0.4668. The strategy would close the position upon RSI crossing below 50 or upon reaching the target level. This approach aligns with the morning surge and late-day bullish divergence observed in the session, making it a viable test for future volatility-driven setups.

A visual of the 15-minute OHLC chart would emphasize the bullish engulfing pattern near $0.4543, the bearish rejection near $0.4773, and the doji at $0.4645. A visual overlay of Bollinger Bands and RSI could highlight the overbought condition in the morning and the bullish divergence in the evening. A Fibonacci retracement from the high at $0.4774 to the low at $0.4592 would show key levels around $0.4668 and $0.4605.

An image depicting a candlestick chart with the key patterns (engulfing, doji) and Fibonacci levels would provide a clear reference for the technical structure. A volume histogram beneath the chart would highlight the two major surges in the morning and afternoon, while a RSI overlay would illustrate the overbought condition and the bullish divergence at the close.