Market Overview for Jupiter/Tether (JUPUSDT) – October 11, 2025

• Price fell to 0.3376 from 0.4176 in 24 hours, showing sharp bearish momentum
• RSI in oversold territory, suggesting potential bounce or consolidation
• Volatility spiked during sell-off but has since compressed
• Volume was heaviest during the 21:30–22:30 ET sell-off
• JUPUSDT tested key support levels multiple times, with mixed follow-through

Jupiter/Tether (JUPUSDT) opened at 0.4133 on October 10 at 12:00 ET, hit a high of 0.4176, a low of 0.3342, and closed at 0.3376 on October 11 at 12:00 ET. Total volume traded in the 24-hour period was 89,979,965.4 with a notional turnover of $29,240,059.86. The price has undergone a significant bearish correction, reaching a 24-hour low of 0.3342.

Structure & Formations

JUPUSDT formed a strong bearish trend, with several key support levels tested, most notably at 0.34 and 0.335. A bearish engulfing pattern was observed during the 21:30–21:45 ET period, followed by a large bear trap or continuation signal. A doji candle at 0.3376 near the close indicates potential hesitation or a possible near-term bottom. A key resistance level appears to be at 0.345, where buying pressure attempted to push price higher but failed to hold.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20SMA and 50SMA have both been bearish, with the price trading well below both. On the daily timeframe, the 50DMA and 100DMA have crossed into bearish alignment, reinforcing the down trend. The 200DMA remains higher, suggesting the pair is in a medium-term downtrend but could test it as a potential key support.

MACD & RSI

The MACD has been deeply negative throughout the 24-hour period, with the histogram showing a strong bearish divergence. The RSI is currently in oversold territory (around 32), which may suggest a short-term bounce or consolidation phase is likely, though not a reversal.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded during the 21:30–22:30 ET period, with the price breaking well below the lower band. Since then, the bands have contracted, indicating a possible period of consolidation. Price has stayed within the bands, suggesting the market remains range-bound or in a defined trend.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked sharply during the 21:30–22:30 ET window, confirming the bearish breakout. Notional turnover also spiked during this period, aligning with the volume increase and supporting the legitimacy of the move. Volume has since decreased, which may indicate reduced conviction in the trend or an exhaustion phase.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci to the 21:30–02:45 ET swing, the 0.345 level corresponds to the 23.6% retracement, and the 0.3375 level marks the 38.2% level, suggesting potential support zones. The 61.8% retracement level is at 0.330, which may be a critical area for a deeper pullback.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the recent bearish engulfing pattern and the RSI reaching oversold territory, a potential backtesting strategy could involve a long bias at the 38.2% Fibonacci level (0.3375) with a stop-loss below 0.335 and a take-profit at 0.343. The volume contraction and MACD divergence also suggest a possible mean reversion trade, where entry is initiated following a confirmed close above 0.34. This strategy aligns with the observed consolidation pattern and could provide a risk-reward profile of approximately 1:2 if the price retests key resistance and breaks higher.