Market Overview for Jupiter/Tether (JUPUSDT) - 2025-11-06

Summary
• Price declined from $0.3552 to $0.3433, forming bearish patterns and breaking key support.
• Volatility expanded, with volume spiking during the sell-off late ET.
• RSI and MACD show bearish momentum, with price near the lower Bollinger Band.

Jupiter/Tether (JUPUSDT) opened at $0.3523 on 2025-11-05 12:00 ET, hit a high of $0.3598, and closed at $0.3433 by 2025-11-06 12:00 ET. The 24-hour trading session saw a total volume of 5,598,620.5 and a notional turnover of $1,947,282.6. The price action suggests a strong bearish bias, with a breakdown of key support levels and a lack of follow-through buying during attempted rallies.

Structure & Formations

JUPUSDT displayed several bearish candlestick formations, including shooting stars and engulfing patterns during the late ET sell-off. A strong breakdown occurred around the $0.352 level, with price failing to recover above it for most of the session. A notable 15-minute bearish engulfing pattern appeared at $0.357 and marked a turning point in the price action.

Moving Averages

Short-term moving averages (20/50-period on the 15-min chart) crossed below the price level, signaling a bearish trend. On the daily timeframe, the 50-period moving average has also crossed below the 100 and 200-period averages, reinforcing a bearish bias. Traders watching the 50-period daily MA should monitor whether the price can hold above $0.347 to avoid further bearish momentum.

MACD & RSI

MACD remained in negative territory for much of the session, with bearish divergence evident after a failed attempt to rally above $0.354. RSI dipped into oversold territory around $0.343, but the lack of a meaningful rebound suggests weak buying interest. Traders should watch for a potential bounce or a further breakdown to $0.340 or lower.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded as price drifted near the lower band of the Bollinger Bands, especially during the late ET sell-off. A price near the lower band combined with bearish momentum indicators increases the likelihood of a continuation move toward $0.340 or lower. A retest of the upper band near $0.356 would be needed to confirm a potential reversal.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked during the sell-off between 20:30 and 21:00 ET, with a single candle accounting for 736,750.4 volume at $0.355. Notional turnover also increased during this time, confirming bearish conviction. However, volume during the attempted recovery near $0.354 was relatively weak, suggesting limited buying interest.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci levels to the recent swing from $0.3598 to $0.3433, the 61.8% retracement level is at $0.3510, and the 38.2% is at $0.3545. The price failed to hold above both levels, suggesting further downside toward the next 78.6% retracement at $0.340. A break below $0.343 would likely trigger another wave of selling.

Backtest Hypothesis

The recent technical behavior of JUPUSDT suggests that strategies relying on bearish momentum could have gained traction during the 24-hour period. A backtest of a MACD Golden-Cross strategy, typically used for identifying long entry points, would likely have faced challenges in this context, as the MACD stayed in bearish territory and failed to signal a reversal. This aligns with the strategy description provided, which noted a failure to fetch MACD data for a different security, likely due to ticker or data-source issues. If applied to JUPUSDT, a short bias based on a bearish divergence in the MACD and RSI could have yielded better results than a long-based strategy.