Market Overview for Jupiter/Tether (JUPUSDT) on 2025-11-03

• Price declined from $0.4068 to $0.3620 amid increasing bearish momentum.
• RSI and MACD showed bearish divergence with price lows.
• Volatility expanded dramatically after 15:30 ET with massive volume surges.
• Bollinger Bands confirmed significant contraction before the selloff.
• Fibonacci retracement levels at 0.382–0.618 align with recent support and resistance zones.

Jupiter/Tether (JUPUSDT) opened at $0.3965 on 2025-11-02 at 12:00 ET and closed at $0.3620 by 12:00 ET on 2025-11-03. During the 24-hour window, it reached a high of $0.4068 and a low of $0.3598. Total volume amounted to 6,322,637.5 units, while notional turnover reached $1,918,708. The decline was supported by growing bearish momentum and divergence in key indicators.

Structure & Formations

The 24-hour candlestick pattern shows a significant bearish decline, with a strong rejection at the upper Fibonacci level of 0.382 ($0.3910) and a breakdown of the 50-period moving average. Notable bearish formations include a shooting star and a bearish engulfing pattern in the first half of the session. These patterns suggest short-term bearish exhaustion, especially as price found support at key Fibonacci levels before resuming the downtrend.

Moving Averages

The 15-minute chart shows JUPUSDT falling below the 20- and 50-period moving averages, reinforcing the bearish bias. On the daily chart, the price is below the 50-, 100-, and 200-period moving averages, which may indicate a longer-term bearish trend. The 50-period MA is currently at $0.3880, which may now act as a key psychological barrier.

MACD & RSI

The MACD line turned negative early in the session and crossed below the signal line, forming a bearish crossover. The histogram showed increasing bearish momentum, particularly after 3:30 PM ET. The RSI moved into oversold territory (below 30) after the selloff, but failed to generate a bullish rebound, suggesting continued bearish momentum. This divergence raises questions about the strength of any near-term support levels.

The RSI and MACD readings confirm a bearish scenario. The RSI is currently at 18, indicating oversold conditions, while the MACD remains negative with a bearish histogram. These readings suggest that any short-covering or bounce may be temporary unless there is a strong reversal in volume and price action.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands showed a sharp contraction before the selloff, signaling a potential breakout. The bands then expanded rapidly as volatility increased. At the close, the price is near the lower band, suggesting it is trading at a multi-week low. This position may continue to pressure the market, especially if the RSI fails to generate a bullish rebound from current levels.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked significantly during the selloff, with the largest single candle (15:30–15:45 ET) recording over 1.37 million notional turnover ($497,811). This aligns with the price breaking the 0.382 Fibonacci level and suggests strong conviction in the bearish move. However, the absence of a corresponding rally in the following session may indicate weak follow-through, which could prolong the bearish phase.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracements to the recent 15-minute swing from $0.4068 to $0.3598 shows key support levels at 38.2% ($0.3865), 50% ($0.3833), and 61.8% ($0.3801). Price rejected all these levels before breaking the 0.3760 support. The breakdown suggests the next key support is at $0.3650 (23.6% retracement of the recent daily move), followed by $0.3598 (the swing low). These levels could offer potential entry opportunities for contrarian traders.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtesting strategy described in the text relies on RSI(14) to identify oversold conditions for long entries and assumes a 3-day holding period. Given the recent oversold RSI reading and the divergence in momentum, a backtest using RSI(14) could be relevant. However, the correct ticker symbol (e.g., “HOLD”) must be clarified before initiating the test. Once resolved, the strategy can be backtested using daily data from 2022-01-03 to 2025-11-03 to assess its historical performance.

In the context of JUPUSDT, a similar approach could be explored if a reversal is expected at current Fibonacci levels. Any signal-based strategy would need to be adjusted for the asset’s high volatility, particularly given the recent selloff. A stop-loss at the next key support level and a take-profit at the 61.8% retracement could help manage risk in a short-term trade.