Market Overview for Jupiter/Tether (JUPUSDT) - 2025-10-19

• Price rose from 0.3401 to 0.3534 before retreating, forming a bullish divergence.
• Key resistance appears near 0.3534 with support near 0.3406.
• High volatility seen in late-night session with volume spiking.
• RSI reached overbought levels before correction, signaling potential exhaustion.
• Bollinger Bands widened during peak volatility, indicating heightened uncertainty.

Jupiter/Tether (JUPUSDT) opened at 0.3401 on October 18 and closed at 0.346 at 12:00 ET on October 19. Price reached a high of 0.3534 and a low of 0.3349. Total volume amounted to 7,626,282.0, while turnover was 2,584.3 in 24 hours.

Structure & Formations

Price action exhibited a series of bullish and bearish candles, including a morning star pattern near 0.3406 and a bearish engulfing candle near 0.3534. Key support levels appear at 0.3406 and 0.3382, with resistance forming at 0.3534 and 0.3545. A doji formed near 0.346 at the 12:00 ET close, suggesting indecision.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period MA crossed above the 50-period MA, signaling a potential short-term bullish bias. Daily moving averages (50/100/200) remain in a bullish alignment, with the 200 MA acting as a strong support at 0.3375. Price closed above all three, suggesting continuation of the broader uptrend.

MACD & RSI

The MACD line crossed above the signal line in the morning, confirming bullish momentum. RSI reached 78 in the late afternoon, indicating overbought conditions, which preceded a pullback to 58 by the close. This suggests short-term profit-taking may be imminent.

Bollinger Bands

Price broke out of a tightened Bollinger Band in the early hours of October 19, confirming a breakout move. The upper band reached 0.3534, coinciding with a high-volume candle. The closing price of 0.346 is well within the bands, indicating a moderate retraction.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked in the early morning (02:45–05:00 ET) and late afternoon (14:00–15:15 ET), with the latter coinciding with a sharp rise in price. Turnover increased correspondingly, confirming the price action. A divergence between the morning volume spike and relatively weak price move suggests indecision among buyers.

Fibonacci Retracements

Key Fibonacci levels on the 15-minute swing from 0.3349 to 0.3534 are at 0.3462 (61.8%) and 0.3436 (50%). Price closed near the 61.8% level, indicating a potential reversal or consolidation. On the daily chart, the 50% retracement of the broader move from 0.3349 to 0.3534 is at 0.3441, where price has bounced twice in the last 24 hours.

Backtest Hypothesis

The provided strategy hinges on identifying bearish RSI divergences and constructing a short signal when RSI returns to the neutral zone (~50). In the context of this 24-hour period, RSI crossed overbought levels and then retreated to 58, failing to re-enter neutral territory. A bearish divergence would have been confirmed had price made a higher high while RSI made a lower high—this was not the case. A successful backtest would require the strategy to avoid false signals in volatile markets like JUPUSDT and confirm its efficacy over a broader period. Given the recent volatility and divergence in price-volume action, the strategy may face challenges in a fast-moving, high-volume market such as this.