Market Overview for Jupiter/Tether (JUPUSDT) on 2025-10-07

• JUPUSDT traded in a volatile range today, with a 24-hour high of 0.4782 and a low of 0.443.
• Momentum indicators suggest weakening bullish pressure, with RSI and MACD showing mixed signals.
• A sharp drop below 0.462 triggered renewed bearish sentiment, with volume spiking during the decline.
• Key Fibonacci levels at 0.464 and 0.458 appear to be acting as immediate support.
• Turnover spiked during the midday selloff, hinting at large liquidation or strategic positioning.

Jupiter/Tether (JUPUSDT) opened at 0.4742 at 12:00 ET–1 and closed at 0.4472 at 12:00 ET, with a high of 0.4782 and a low of 0.443. The pair experienced a total volume of 11,267,629.5 and a notional turnover of ~$4,670,807.31 (approximate, based on traded volumes and prices). The 24-hour session was marked by sharp volatility, especially during midday hours.

Structure & Formations

Price action revealed a bearish reversal pattern around 0.462, where a large bearish candle with a high wick confirmed rejection. Earlier in the day, a bullish engulfing pattern emerged briefly around 0.474, but it failed to hold. Key support levels identified include 0.462 (38.2% Fibonacci), 0.458 (61.8%), and 0.452 (daily low). Resistance remains at 0.4708 and 0.4722. A Doji candle around 0.4705 suggested indecision before a sharp downturn.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, price closed below both the 20 and 50-period moving averages, indicating short-term bearish bias. On the daily chart, while the 50-period MA is around 0.472, the 100- and 200-period lines are significantly higher, reinforcing a medium-term bearish trend. The price is currently trading well beneath these lines, suggesting a potential continuation of the decline.

MACD & RSI

MACD turned bearish during the selloff, with the line crossing below the signal line around 0.461. RSI dipped to oversold territory below 30 at 0.443, hinting at possible short-term bouncing or consolidation. However, the divergence between RSI and price during the midday drop suggests caution—RSI failed to make a new low despite the price making a fresh 24-hour low.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands showed a widening during the morning session, indicating increased volatility. By the afternoon, the price moved toward the lower band, with a brief test of 0.443 suggesting exhaustion in the short term. The contraction observed in the early morning was followed by a breakout to the downside, aligning with bearish expectations.

Volume & Turnover

Volume surged during the price drop below 0.462, with the 15-minute candle at 2025-10-07 14:45:00 showing a volume spike of 150,299.1, which coincided with a turnover of ~$68,000. This volume spike suggests strong selling pressure, likely from large orders or position liquidation. However, volume has since declined, indicating reduced participation and possible consolidation.

Fibonacci Retracements

Recent 15-minute swings from 0.4722 to 0.462 and from 0.4615 to 0.452 suggest key retracement levels at 0.464 (38.2%) and 0.458 (61.8%). Price found temporary support at 0.462 and again at 0.458, indicating possible floor areas for the next 24 hours. On the daily chart, the 61.8% retracement of the broader downtrend lies near 0.450, suggesting a possible medium-term target.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the observed price action, a potential backtest strategy could focus on short-term bearish entries at key Fibonacci and moving average levels, especially when confirmed by bearish candlestick patterns and divergences in the RSI. A hypothetical setup would involve entering a short position on a close below 0.462, with a stop-loss above 0.466 and a target at 0.450–0.455. This approach aligns with the recent bearish momentum and the confirmation of key support levels failing. The strategy would also benefit from filtering entries with high volume and RSI divergence for higher probability trades.