Market Overview for Jupiter/Tether (JUPUSDT): 2025-10-06

• JUPUSDT declined sharply in early trading, forming a bearish gap and key support level near 0.4500.
• Volatility expanded midday as buyers retook control from 0.4530 to 0.4750, pushing price 5.8% higher.
• RSI and MACD aligned in bullish territory, suggesting continued upside potential.
• Bollinger Bands tightened before the breakout, signaling a high-probability move.
• Final 15-minute candle closed at 0.4738, with 797,941 JUP traded in the last hour alone.

Jupiter/Tether (JUPUSDT) opened at 0.4603 on 2025-10-05 at 12:00 ET and traded as low as 0.4501 before closing at 0.4738 on 2025-10-06 at 12:00 ET. The pair reached a high of 0.4767 and a low of 0.4479 during the 24-hour period. Total volume traded was 5,443,716 JUP, with a notional turnover of approximately $2,525,793.

Structure & Formations

The price structure showed a distinct bearish breakdown in the early part of the session, with a gap down to 0.4501 forming a psychological support level. This was followed by a sharp recovery from 0.4530, where a bullish engulfing pattern confirmed a reversal. A key support level was retested at 0.4530 and then bounced to retest a prior high of 0.4697 before a final surge above 0.4730. A notable bearish harami pattern formed near 0.4742 during the final two hours, suggesting a potential pullback ahead.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, price closed above both the 20SMA and 50SMA, indicating short-term bullish momentum. The 50-period SMA was at 0.4723 at the close, while the 100SMA and 200SMA on the daily chart were lower, suggesting the current rally remains within a larger bullish trend. The convergence of short-term averages above the longer-term ones supports a continuation of the upward move, at least in the near term.

MACD & RSI

MACD turned bullish as price approached 0.4697, with the histogram expanding into positive territory and the signal line crossing above. RSI reached 62 by the close, indicating moderate bullish momentum. A reading above 50 suggests the pair remains in an uptrend, but it is not yet overbought (which would require RSI above 70). This suggests the price may continue higher but could experience a pullback soon if buyers fail to maintain interest above 0.4720.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands contracted sharply between 0.4530 and 0.4600, signaling a period of consolidation before the breakout. The upper band reached as high as 0.4770 during the final hours, while the lower band sat near 0.4470. Price closed near the upper band, indicating high volatility and strong conviction in the bullish move. This setup increases the probability of a retest of key support levels if volatility decreases or a bearish catalyst emerges.

Volume & Turnover

Volume surged during the critical 0.4530–0.4700 rally, with the largest 15-minute bar occurring at 0.4697, where over 797,941 JUP changed hands. Turnover during the rally exceeded $2.5 million, indicating strong institutional involvement. However, volume began to taper off after 0.4720, which may signal a lack of follow-through buying. This divergence between price and volume could hint at a potential exhaustion phase or a consolidation period in the near term.

Fibonacci Retracements

Fibonacci retracement levels from the key swing low of 0.4501 to the high of 0.4767 show that the 38.2% level sits at 0.4655 and the 61.8% at 0.4612. Price is currently trading above the 50% retracement level of 0.4634, indicating a strong bullish bias. A breakdown below 0.4612 could trigger a retest of the 0.4530 support level, where buyers have previously held the pair.

Backtest Hypothesis

The provided backtesting strategy suggests entering a long position when price breaks above the 20SMA with confirmation from the 50SMA crossing above the 100SMA, and exiting when RSI exceeds 70 or the 20SMA diverges from price. During the current session, JUPUSDT met the entry criteria when it broke above 0.4697 with the 50SMA crossing above the 100SMA, while RSI remained well below overbought levels. The strategy would have captured the full 0.4697–0.4738 move. A trailing stop could have been placed at the 0.4612 Fibonacci level, which aligns with a key support zone.