Market Overview for Jupiter/Tether (JUPUSDT) on 2025-10-03

• JUPUSDT saw a 24-hour low of 0.4583 and a high of 0.4754, closing near 0.4598 after a bearish reversal in the final hours.
• Strong bearish momentum emerged late in the session with RSI dipping below 30, suggesting oversold conditions.
• Volatility expanded during the midday hours before contracting near the close, indicating potential consolidation ahead.
• Notable volume surges occurred during the afternoon and early evening, but price failed to confirm bullish breakout above 0.473.
• A potential support zone appears at 0.458–0.460, coinciding with Fibonacci 61.8% of the last bullish swing.

Jupiter/Tether (JUPUSDT) opened at 0.4583 (12:00 ET–1), reached a high of 0.4754, touched a low of 0.4583, and closed at 0.4598 (12:00 ET) for the 24-hour period. Total volume was 13.9 million tokens, with a notional turnover of approximately $6.4 million. The price action reflects a bearish reversal in the final hours of the session.

Structure & Formations

Price structure for JUPUSDT shows a key support zone forming between 0.4583 and 0.4600, which has been tested multiple times throughout the day. A bearish engulfing pattern is visible around 0.4700–0.4682 during the early evening hours, signaling potential bearish continuation. A large doji at 0.4623 in the early morning also hints at indecision and possible exhaustion after a brief rebound from the 0.4600 level.

The 20- and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart have been converging downward, with the price currently below both, indicating bearish control. On the daily chart, JUPUSDT is below the 50, 100, and 200-period moving averages, reinforcing the medium-term bearish bias.

MACD & RSI

The MACD for JUPUSDT turned negative in the afternoon, with a bearish crossover between the signal and MACD lines occurring around 0.4684. The RSI has declined into oversold territory below 30, which may suggest short-term support at 0.4583 is becoming stronger. However, caution is warranted, as RSI can remain in oversold conditions for extended periods during strong downtrends.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility was notable in the midday hours, with price reaching the upper Bollinger Band around 0.473 before retracing. By the close, the price was sitting just above the lower band, near the 0.4598 level, suggesting a potential reversal or consolidation phase. The contraction in the bands in the final hours implies a possible breakout attempt or continued consolidation.

Volume & Turnover

Volume surged during the afternoon and early evening as price attempted to break above 0.473, but failed to hold, indicating possible resistance at that level. The largest volume spike occurred at 0.4754 with a volume of 421,190.6 tokens, but price failed to sustain above that level. Turnover has decreased in the final hours, aligning with the bearish reversal. This divergence between volume and price movement suggests weakening bullish conviction.

Fibonacci Retracements

Fibonacci levels suggest a key retracement level at 0.4634 (38.2%) for the most recent 15-minute bullish swing, and a critical level at 0.4583 (61.8%). The daily chart retracement of the 24-hour high shows a strong 61.8% level around 0.4583, which has held as a key support. A break below that level could open the door to lower psychological levels such as 0.4500.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the bearish reversal and strong volume divergence observed, a backtest strategy could be structured around shorting JUPUSDT when a bearish engulfing pattern forms above a key Fibonacci retracement level (e.g., 0.4634–0.4684) and RSI crosses below 30. A stop-loss could be placed above the nearest resistance (0.471–0.473), and a take-profit target could be set at the next Fibonacci level (0.4583). A trailing stop could also be activated once price breaks below 0.4600 for risk management. This strategy aims to capitalize on short-term bearish continuation with defined risk parameters.