Market Overview for Jupiter/Tether (JUPUSDT) on 2025-10-03

• JUPUSDT traded between $0.4583 and $0.4754 in 24 hours, with a 15-minute close of $0.4599
• Price formed a bearish engulfing pattern near $0.4754 and later a bullish reversal near $0.4612
• Volume surged to 275,801.3 at the peak of the rally, then dropped sharply during the late sell-off
• RSI indicated overbought conditions mid-day and oversold by the close, signaling divergent momentum
• Bollinger Bands expanded during the rally, then narrowed as volatility subsided

Jupiter/Tether (JUPUSDT) opened at $0.4583 on 2025-10-02 at 12:00 ET and reached a high of $0.4754 before closing at $0.4599 as of 12:00 ET on 2025-10-03. The 24-hour volume amounted to 6,092,873.4, with a notional turnover of $2,814,752.33.

The 15-minute chart displayed a key bearish engulfing pattern at $0.4754 (candle #16) following a strong rally, signaling potential near-term bearish momentum. A bullish reversal pattern formed at $0.4612 (candle #50) as the price stabilized after a sell-off. Key support levels appear to be forming around $0.4600–$0.4615, while resistance is likely to remain at $0.4710–$0.4754. A doji near $0.4615 suggests indecision and potential consolidation.

Moving averages on the 15-minute timeframe show JUPUSDT dipping below its 20-period MA, which currently sits at $0.4645, while the 50-period MA is at $0.4665. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA is at $0.4620, above the 200-period MA at $0.4605, indicating a mixed bias between short and long-term trends. Price is currently hovering just above the 50-day average, suggesting a potential bounce if volume picks up.

The MACD histogram shifted from positive to negative in the latter half of the day, indicating weakening bullish momentum, while the RSI dipped into oversold territory by the end of the day. Bollinger Bands showed a clear expansion during the rally, then a contraction during the consolidation phase. The price remains within the bands but is currently near the lower band, suggesting the risk of a short-term rebound. Volume and turnover spiked during the rally but declined significantly during the consolidation, indicating reduced conviction in the move higher. Divergence between price and turnover suggests caution.

Backtest Hypothesis
The backtesting strategy under consideration involves a mean-reversion setup using RSI (14) and Bollinger Bands on the 15-minute chart. A buy signal is triggered when the price crosses below the lower Bollinger Band and RSI falls below 30, with a stop-loss placed 1.5% below the entry price. A sell signal is generated when the price crosses back above the 20-period MA and RSI rises above 60. The current market action aligns with the setup at $0.4600–$0.4612, where RSI is near oversold and the price is near the lower band. This could be an early indication of a short-term bounce within the range of $0.4600–$0.4754, if volume increases on the next rally.