Market Overview: Jupiter/Tether (JUPUSDT) - 2025-09-26

• JUPUSDT fell from 0.4471 to 0.4278 early, then recovered to close at 0.4284 at 12:00 ET.
• Price consolidated near 0.4300, with no clear breakout or reversal signals forming.
• Volatility was moderate, with average 15-min ranges narrowing in the final 8 hours.
• Turnover spiked midday following a 0.4342 open, with volume confirming the directional bias.
• RSI suggested mild oversold conditions, but MACD remained bearish, indicating weak momentum.

Jupiter/Tether (JUPUSDT) opened at 0.4469 on 2025-09-25 at 12:00 ET and closed at 0.4284 on 2025-09-26 at 12:00 ET. The pair hit a high of 0.4486 and a low of 0.4234 during the 24-hour period. Total traded volume amounted to 8.4 million JUP, with a notional turnover of $3.6 million, based on the provided OHLCV data.

Structure and formations on the 15-minute chart show a key support at 0.4265–0.4275 and a resistance at 0.4330–0.4345. A bearish engulfing pattern formed around 0.4300–0.4320 early on, while a doji at 0.4345–0.4350 suggested indecision. The price consolidated in a descending triangle during the final 6 hours, with 0.4280–0.4290 acting as a short-term floor. The 0.4342–0.4330 retracement level on the 15-minute chart aligns with 61.8% Fibonacci levels from a prior bearish swing.

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The 20-period and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart were in bearish alignment, with the 20-SMA below the 50-SMA for most of the session. On the daily chart, the 50-day SMA (0.4320) acted as a key resistance, while the 200-day SMA (0.4285) supported the current range. A cross of the 20 and 50 SMAs near 0.4300 suggested a potential reversal point if confirmed by higher volume.

MACD remained bearish, with the histogram below zero and a negative crossover occurring at 0.4320. The RSI bottomed at 29.3 in the early hours, suggesting oversold conditions, but failed to push above 50 by the session close, indicating weak bullish momentum. Bollinger Bands showed moderate volatility, with the price oscillating near the mid-band after a brief expansion near 0.4345. A contraction occurred in the final 4 hours, suggesting a potential breakout setup.

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Volume spiked to 1.3 million JUP at 0.4342, aligning with a key Fibonacci retracement level. Turnover also saw a significant increase during this period, confirming the move. However, volume in the final 8 hours remained below average, suggesting waning interest. A divergence between volume and price was observed during the 0.4325–0.4300 consolidation, indicating reduced conviction in the upward move. Traders should monitor volume spikes as potential signals for trend continuation or reversal.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtesting strategy involves entering long positions when the 20-SMA crosses above the 50-SMA (golden cross) and exits when the 50-SMA crosses back above the 20-SMA (death cross), using a 15-minute time frame and volume confirmation. Historical data from this 24-hour period shows a potential golden cross near 0.4285–0.4290, with volume increasing during the consolidation phase. While the RSI remains oversold, this setup suggests a short-term reversal may be in play. If confirmed, it could align with the strategy’s entry criteria, but traders should remain cautious due to the bearish MACD and weak overall trend.

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