Market Overview for Jupiter/Tether (JUPUSDT) – 2025-09-25

• Price fell from 0.4792 to 0.4480 over 24 hours, ending with bearish momentum
• RSI in oversold territory indicates potential short-term bounce
• Volatility expanded during late-night hours, with Bollinger Bands widening
• Volume surged during the price drop, confirming bearish sentiment
• Fibonacci 61.8% level at ~0.4550 now a key area for support testing

Jupiter/Tether (JUPUSDT) opened at 0.4787 on 2025-09-24 at 12:00 ET and closed at 0.4480 at 12:00 ET the next day. The 24-hour range was 0.4792 (high) to 0.4461 (low). Total volume was 12,157,463.8, and notional turnover reached $5,337,911.83. A sharp selloff emerged late in the session, accelerating through the early hours of 2025-09-25.

Structure & Formations

The price action formed a bearish continuation pattern as the 24-hour session progressed, especially after 02:00 ET when a large bearish candle (0.4657–0.4603) signaled a breakdown in sentiment. Subsequent bearish momentum was confirmed by multiple large-volume candles during the Asian session, with Fibonacci 61.8% retracement at ~0.4550 acting as a short-term support level. A potential bullish engulfing pattern emerged briefly at 09:15–09:30 ET, but it failed to hold due to lack of volume support.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages both crossed below the price in the early hours of 2025-09-25, reinforcing the bearish trend. On the daily chart, the price closed below the 50-period moving average, with the 100 and 200-period lines acting as dynamic resistance. This confirms a medium-term bearish bias and a breakdown from key trendline support.

MACD & RSI

The MACD showed a bearish crossover late on 2025-09-24, followed by a deepening bearish divergence as momentum accelerated lower through the Asian and European sessions. RSI hit oversold levels below 30 during the early morning hours of 2025-09-25, signaling potential for a short-term bounce but not a reversal. The RSI divergence from price suggests a continuation of the bearish trend is likely unless there's a significant volume surge with a reversal pattern.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands widened significantly during the selloff, with the 20-period lower band dipping to ~0.4460. Price closed near the lower band, indicating extreme bearish pressure. A reversal could emerge if the price breaks above the mid-band and sustains volume-based buying momentum. However, the low volatility in the latter part of the session suggests traders are consolidating after the sharp decline.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked during the selloff from 02:00 to 04:30 ET, with a total of ~2.8 million units traded during that window alone. Turnover also surged during that period, confirming the strength of the bearish move. Divergence between volume and price became evident in the final two hours of the session, with volume dropping sharply while the price continued to decline, indicating exhaustion among sellers.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracement levels to the key swing from 0.4792 to 0.4461, the 38.2% level is at ~0.4617 and acted as a minor resistance during the bounce attempt in the early morning. The 61.8% level (~0.4550) is now a critical support zone for the next 24 hours. If this level fails, the next target is the 78.6% level at ~0.4460, which aligns with the lower Bollinger Band.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the observed bearish momentum and confirmation through volume and technical indicators, a potential backtesting strategy could be to initiate short positions on a break below the 0.4550 Fibonacci level, with a stop loss placed above the 0.4617 38.2% retracement level. A 1:2 risk-to-reward ratio would suggest a target at 0.4460. The strategy would aim to capture continuation of the bearish trend, supported by the divergence in MACD and the oversold RSI condition. However, any bullish reversal pattern (e.g., bullish engulfing or a doji) with increasing volume near 0.4550 would invalidate the strategy.