Market Overview for IQ/Tether USDt (IQUSDT) – 2025-09-11

• Price closed lower after testing 0.003626, with bearish momentum reaccelerating below 0.003550.
• High volatility in the early session, followed by a consolidation phase into the afternoon.
• Turnover spiked near 0.003626 but failed to confirm a bullish breakout.
• Bollinger Band contraction in late afternoon suggests potential for a directional move.
• MACD and RSI show oversold conditions, hinting at a possible near-term rebound.

Over the past 24 hours, IQUSDT opened at 0.003576 (12:00 ET − 1), reached a high of 0.003638, fell to a low of 0.003448, and closed at 0.003477 (12:00 ET). Total volume amounted to 157,761,807.0, with a notional turnover of ~$550,000. The pair displayed a strong bearish bias after a failed breakout attempt early in the session.

Structure & Formations

Price formed a large bearish engulfing pattern after reaching 0.003638 and failed to hold the 0.003626 resistance level. A key support zone emerged between 0.003540 and 0.003520, marked by repeated retests and bullish hammers, suggesting short-term buyers may be active in that range. A doji formed near 0.003530 in the afternoon, indicating indecision and a potential consolidation phase ahead. The 0.003500 level appears as a critical psychological floor, with a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at 0.003525 offering a near-term support target.

Moving Averages and Indicators

The 20-period and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart remained bearish through the session, with price staying well below both. The 50-period SMA on the daily chart was at 0.003580, offering a distant resistance. RSI dropped into oversold territory near 30 in the late afternoon, suggesting a possible short-term bounce. MACD showed bearish divergence in the morning but started to flatten in the afternoon, hinting at easing momentum.

Bollinger Bands were in a state of contraction from 06:00–09:00 ET, signaling low volatility. Price broke out of the lower band in the afternoon, indicating a possible continuation of the downward trend. The bands currently show a widening trend, reflecting renewed volatility.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked near 0.003626 (12:00–14:00 ET) but failed to confirm a breakout, suggesting distribution or profit-taking. A second volume spike occurred as price retested 0.003540–0.003520 in the afternoon, supporting the idea of a short-term support level. Notional turnover declined after 15:00 ET, indicating reduced conviction among large traders. A divergence between volume and price suggests a potential reversal could be in play if the 0.003520 support holds.

Backtest Hypothesis

A backtest strategy could involve a short bias triggered by a break of the 20-period SMA on the 15-minute chart, with a stop above a bullish engulfing pattern’s high. A long bias might be considered if price closes above the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at 0.003525 with rising volume and RSI turning bullish. This approach leverages the bearish momentum seen in the past 24 hours while hedging against short-term countertrend bounces.