Market Overview for IQ/Tether (IQUSDT): Key Levels and Momentum Cues

• IQ/Tether drifted lower by ~7.3% in 24 hours, closing near key support at $0.002153.
• Volume spiked late morning (ET) but failed to confirm a reversal, signaling bearish momentum.
• RSI entered oversold territory near 27, suggesting short-term exhaustion but not necessarily a bottom.
• Bollinger Bands narrowed mid-session, hinting at a potential breakout, which ultimately trended lower.

At 12:00 ET on 2025-11-03, IQ/Tether (IQUSDT) opened at $0.002294, touched a high of $0.002322, and closed at $0.002153, with a 24-hour volume of ~56.2 million contracts and a notional turnover of $121.5 million. The session saw a sharp breakdown after 1500 ET, with a bearish close below prior support.

Structure & Formations

The price of IQ/Tether experienced a clear breakdown during the 2200–0500 ET period, falling from $0.002303 to a low of $0.002128. This move formed a strong bearish trendline and a potential bearish flag pattern. Key support levels emerged at $0.002153 and $0.002128, while the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the earlier bullish move now resides near $0.002178. A series of bearish engulfing patterns emerged in the latter half of the session, reinforcing the bearish bias.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period MA was bearishly aligned with the 50-period MA, indicating continued downside momentum. Over the daily chart, the 50-period MA crossed below the 100-period and 200-period MAs, forming a death cross scenario. This aligns with the intra-day bearish action and suggests that short-term traders remain cautious.

MACD & RSI

The 15-minute MACD showed bearish divergence, with the histogram tightening before the price breakdown, suggesting fading bullish momentum. RSI entered oversold territory (~27) near session close, indicating short-term exhaustion but not a confirmed bottom. This may attract bargain hunters, though the broader bearish context could negate such buying.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands contracted mid-session before widening significantly during the breakdown, indicating increased volatility. Price closed near the lower band, a classic sign of weak momentum and a potential continuation of the bearish move. A break below the band’s low of $0.002128 could trigger further stop-loss selling.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked sharply between 0400 and 0500 ET, with the 0400–0415 candle alone accounting for over 23 million contracts, but failed to push the price higher. This divergence between volume and price signaled weakening bullish resolve. Notional turnover followed a similar pattern, peaking at $18.3 million before the breakdown.

Fibonacci Retracements

The 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level on the 15-minute chart sits at $0.002165, and the price failed to hold here. Daily retracements suggest that further support may be found at $0.002118, a critical area to watch for a potential bounce or continuation of the bearish trend.

Backtest Hypothesis

The bearish engulfing patterns that emerged in the latter half of the session align with a potential shorting strategy. A backtest could be constructed around identifying such patterns at session close and entering short positions the following day. This would align with the current bearish momentum and Fibonacci support levels. For the backtest, we would focus on IQ/Tether (IQUSDT) as the target asset.

If we assume a short entry at the close of the session when a bearish engulfing pattern is detected, the position would be held for one trading day and then closed at the next day’s close. To refine the strategy, a stop-loss could be placed slightly above the high of the engulfing candle to limit risk. While the current RSI suggests a potential overextension, a one-day holding period would allow us to test the immediate bearish bias without exposing the strategy to longer-term volatility.