Market Overview for IQ/Tether (IQUSDT) – 2025-10-14

• Price surged 10.6% from 0.002679 to 0.002684 in 24 hours, with late-night momentum accelerating into early morning.
• Volatility expanded sharply after 00:00 ET as price hit a 24-hour high of 0.002812 before retracing.
• Bollinger Band width increased by 23% post-midnight, suggesting heightened market uncertainty.
• Notional turnover spiked 12x above midday levels overnight, confirming strong bullish participation.

Opening Summary

At 12:00 ET on October 14, 2025, IQ/Tether (IQUSDT) opened at 0.002679, reaching a high of 0.002812 and a low of 0.002642 over the past 24 hours. The closing price at 12:00 ET was 0.002684. Total trading volume was 209,886,716.00, with notional turnover reaching approximately $569,792 USD. The pair experienced pronounced late-night buying pressure followed by a consolidation phase in early morning hours.

Structure & Formations

The 24-hour candlestick pattern revealed a strong bullish impulse following a sharp reversal from a morning low of 0.002642. A large bullish engulfing pattern developed between 06:15–06:30 ET as price rebounded from a key support area. A potential resistance level is now forming near 0.002812, where price peaked overnight and retreated from. A morning session bearish divergence emerged around 07:45–09:00 ET, suggesting caution ahead of further breakouts.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period SMAs crossed above the price action after 05:00 ET, confirming a bullish trend acceleration. On the daily timeframe, the 50-period and 100-period SMAs are converging at 0.002668–0.002673, providing a potential short-term support cluster. The 200-period SMA sits at 0.002692, forming a long-term resistance above the current close.

MACD & RSI

The MACD histogram expanded significantly overnight between 00:15–01:45 ET, indicating strong momentum. However, it contracted after 03:00 ET as price pulled back. The RSI moved into overbought territory (72–75) between 00:45–01:30 ET, signaling a potential short-term correction. It later returned to neutral levels (50–55), aligning with the price consolidation. A bearish RSI divergence formed between 07:45–09:45 ET, reinforcing caution ahead of further upswings.

Bollinger Bands

The Bollinger Bands expanded by approximately 23% after midnight as the price surged toward 0.002812, indicating heightened volatility and aggressive participation. The price closed near the mid-band at 12:00 ET after a retracement from the upper band. A potential volatility contraction is forming in the morning session, with the bands narrowing and price hovering around the 0.002675–0.002685 range.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked to 137,545,010.00 at 00:15 ET and 42,310,793.00 at 06:30 ET, confirming strong institutional or algorithmic buying. Notional turnover followed a similar pattern, peaking at $121,177 USD and $119,818 USD during these respective hours. A divergence between rising prices and declining volume occurred between 07:00–09:00 ET, suggesting waning bullish conviction despite a modest price rebound.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracements to the overnight swing from 0.002642 (low) to 0.002812 (high), the 38.2% retracement level sits at 0.002707, and the 61.8% level at 0.002677. The price closed near 0.002684, slightly above the 61.8% level, suggesting a potential short-term bottoming process. On the daily chart, a retracement of the recent down leg (from 0.00279–0.002642) places key support near 0.002735, a level tested in the afternoon.

Looking ahead, the market may consolidate around the 0.002680–0.002690 range before testing the 0.002735–0.002750 level in the next 24 hours. Traders should monitor volume behavior and RSI divergence for early signs of a reversal or continuation. A break above 0.002735 could reignite bullish momentum, while a retest of 0.002679 may trigger further short-term corrections.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the recent MACD overextension and the divergence seen in RSI and volume during the morning pullback, a potential short-side backtest could focus on a MACD top divergence entry strategy. The current data feed for this signal is unavailable due to a backend issue, but a proxy approach using standard MACD crossover or histogram contraction could be employed in the interim. If a confirmed MACD top divergence occurred between 07:45–09:00 ET, an entry short would have aligned with the 0.002695–0.002685 range. A 3-day backtest of this approach on historical IQUSDT data would help assess the strategy’s efficacy under similar conditions.