Market Overview for IQ/Tether (IQUSDT): 2025-10-08

• Price declined from 0.003144 to 0.003104 over 24 hours, indicating bearish momentum.
• RSI and MACD signaled weakening bullish momentum and potential oversold conditions by early morning.
• Volatility expanded in the overnight session with a significant low at 0.003076 on IQUSDT.
• Bollinger Bands showed a tight squeeze early, followed by a sharp break lower after 3 AM ET.
• A key support level appears to be forming around 0.003100–0.003105.

The 24-hour price action for IQ/Tether (IQUSDT) from 0.003144 (12:00 ET – 1) to 0.003104 (12:00 ET) saw a -1.25% decline, with a high of 0.00315 and low of 0.003076. Total volume traded was 47.4 million units, and notional turnover came to $149,120, reflecting uneven but elevated activity during the overnight session.

Structure & Formations

Price formed a bearish engulfing pattern around 23:00 ET on October 7 and again at 04:00 ET, followed by a shooting star at 04:45 ET, which coincided with the low of 0.003076. A doji at 03:45 ET signaled a volatility contraction before the sharp drop. The price is now consolidating near 0.003104, which appears to be a short-term support level, with potential resistance near 0.003120–0.003125.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period EMA and 50-period EMA have remained bearish for over 7 hours. The 50-period EMA currently sits at ~0.003108, just above the close. On the daily chart, the 50/100/200-period EMAs have been largely flat, suggesting no strong directional bias from longer-term trends.

MACD & RSI

MACD turned negative at 02:45 ET and remains bearish with a negative histogram. The RSI dropped into oversold territory (~25) around 04:00 ET and has remained there through 12:00 ET, suggesting potential for a short-term bounce. However, the RSI has not formed a bullish divergence, which weakens the case for a reversal.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands showed a tight squeeze during the morning session, with price hovering near the lower band. The sharp drop in the overnight session caused a significant volatility expansion and a strong break below the lower band, suggesting continuation of the bear trend. Price has since remained within the bands, near the lower boundary, indicating a potential test of psychological support at 0.003100.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked during the overnight sell-off, particularly at 03:30 ET and 04:15 ET, with large volumes driving the price to a new 24-hour low. However, volume has since tailed off, indicating a potential pause in selling pressure. Turnover, at $149,120, is moderate relative to the volume, suggesting lower leverage or spot trading activity.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracements to the 24-hour range (0.003144 to 0.003076), the key levels for the next 24 hours include 38.2% at 0.003117 and 61.8% at 0.003103, which aligns with the recent price level. A break below 0.003103 may confirm further bearish sentiment.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtest strategy could involve entering short positions when the RSI drops below 30 and the price closes below the 50 EMA on a 15-minute chart, while maintaining a stop-loss just above the 61.8% retracement level. This strategy would aim to capitalize on oversold conditions and bearish trend alignment. Exits could occur on a close above the 38.2% retracement level or a positive MACD crossover. This approach appears to align with the observed price behavior and technical indicators, especially during the overnight session.